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The Central and Eastern European Countries and the European Union |
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Edited by Michael Artis, Anindya Banerjee
and Massimiliano Marcellino |
| The accession of ten new members to the European Union on 1 May 2004 is among the most significant developments in the history of European integration. Based upon studies conducted by the European Forecasting Network, this book analyses key aspects of the impact of this recent enlargement with reference to eight of the ten new Member States, namely the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). It demonstrates that the enlargement could have profound consequences on both the new Member States and on the pre-accession members of the Union, given the unparalleled magnitude of the enlargement, the fact that the CEECs have levels of prosperity and economic development well below the Union average, and their history of participation in centrally planned regimes. The contributions examine regional policy, the debate about accession to the EMU, the macroeconomic trajectories of the Central and Eastern European economies to date and their likely future development. |
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| Introduction |
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Michael Artis
Anindya Banerjee
Massimiliano Marcellino |
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| New Member States: Macroeconomic Outlook and Forecasts |
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The Recent Economic Recovery in the New Member States |
Emilio Rossi
Zbyszko Tabernacki |
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Inflation's Temporary Resurgence not Yet a Concern |
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The Rush to the Euro: a Dose of Realism |
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Fiscal Challenges and Interest Rate Convergence |
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Country Overviews |
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| The Asymmetric Impact of Enlargement on Old and New Member States: a General Equilibrium Approach |
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Introduction |
Hedi Bchir
Lionel Fontagné
Paolo Zanghieri |
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The Pre-Enlargement Situation |
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General Equilibrium Dimensions of Enlargement |
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From Trade Liberalization to Deep Economic Integration |
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Comparison with Other Studies Using a Similar Methodology |
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Conclusions |
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| Changes in the Spatial Distribution Patterns of European Regional Activity: the Enlargements of the Mid-1980s and 2004 |
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Introduction |
Toni Mora
Esther Vaya
Jordi Surinach |
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Spatial Agglomeration Models: Theoretical Aspects and Empirical Evidence |
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Defining Data and Indices |
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Analysis of the Distribution of the Evolution of Spatial Activity, 1985-95 |
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The Effects of the New Enlargement on the Distribution of Activity: from EU-15 to EU-27 |
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Conclusions |
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| Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables for the New Member States |
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Introduction |
Anindya Banerjee
Massimiliano Marcellino
Igor Masten |
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Methodology |
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The Data |
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Forecasting Results |
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Conclusions |
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| The Cyclical Experience of the New Member States |
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Introduction |
Michael Artis
Massimiliano Marcellino
Tommaso Proietti |
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The Salience of the Topic |
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Our Approach |
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Application and Results |
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Conclusions |
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| Demand and Supply Shocks in the New Member States |
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Introduction |
Raul Ramos
Jordi Surinach |
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Asymmetric Shocks and the Optimum Currency Areas Approach |
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Empirical Analysis |
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Conclusions |
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| Monetary Transmission in the New Member States |
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Introduction |
Raul Ramos
Jordi Surinach |
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Review of the Empirical Literature on Monetary Transmission in the New Member States |
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Empirical Evidence |
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Conclusions |
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| Promoting Fiscal Restraint in Three Central European Member States |
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Introduction |
Emilio Rossi
Zbyszko Tabernacki |
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Background |
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The Weak Point of Medium-Term Budgetary Planning |
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Public Finance in the Pre-Accession Economic Programmes |
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Scenarios |
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| Current Account Dynamics in the New Member States |
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Introduction |
Paolo Zanghieri |
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Basic Identities and Some Stylised Facts |
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How Important is the Current Account? |
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Methodologies for Assessing Sustainability |
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Modelling the Current Account |
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A Simple Econometric Model |
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Policy Issues |
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Conclusions |
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| Challenges to Banking Sector Stability in Selected New Member States |
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Introduction |
Charles Movit |
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Progress to Date in Restructuring the Banking Sectors |
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Current Indicators of Operational Efficiency and Financial Stability |
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Bank Regulation and Supervision |
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Challenges to the Banking Sectors in the Run-Up to Accession and the Euro, and Policy Implications |
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Conclusions |
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| Infrastructure Investments as a Tool for Regional Development Policy: Lessons from the Spanish Evidence |
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Introduction |
Rosina Moreno
Enrique Lopez-Bazo
Manuel Artis |
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Model Specification |
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Data and Spatial Exploratory Analysis |
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Empirical Analysis |
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Conclusions |
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| TFP, Costs and Public Infrastructure: an Equivocal Relationship |
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Introduction |
Eliana La Ferrara
Massimiliano Marcellino |
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The Theoretical Framework |
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The Data |
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The Role of Public Capital |
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Conclusions |
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| Regional Policies After the EU Enlargement |
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Introduction |
Michele Boldrin |
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Initial Conditions and Simulations of the Future |
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Principles, Instruments and Jurisdiction |
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Conclusions |
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| Cambridge University Press, 2006 |
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