CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Feeding the planet by 2050
9.2 billion is the estimated number of individuals that the planet will have to feed by 2050. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard estimate an economic model able to replicate the main features of the nutrition transition, which characterizes the evolution of diet with per capita income and project global food demand between 2010 and 2050. They predict an increase in caloric demand of 46% for 2050, mainly attributable to low-middle and low income countries. Using alternative projections of populations and revenues shows large uncertainties in the rise of demand for animal-based (alt. vegetal-based) calories, ranging from 78% to 109% (alt. 20% to 42%). >>>
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