CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale

New data and SSP scenarios

EconMap is the database developed by the CEPII in 2010 to picture the world economy in the long term. EconMap was formerly known as Baseline.

Based on a three-factor production function of labour, capital and energy, plus two forms of technological change, we propose a long-run growth scenario for 167 countries at the 2050 horizon, relying on the model MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy). Our model is fitted with United Nations and International Labour Office labour projections, and econometric estimations of (i) capital accumulation, (ii) saving rates, (iii) relationship between saving rates and investment rates, (iv) education, (v) female participation, and (vi) technological progress (which includes energy and total factor productivity).

The data files cover GDP at constant and variable relative prices, together with production factors and technological change, for each of the 167 countries, from 1980 to 2050.
 Methodology: a Short Description
Our projections provide four novelties.

First, we account for energy constraints by including its consumption in the production function and by taking account of rents accruing to oil exporting countries.

Second, we estimate a non-unitary relationship between savings and investment, departing from assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility.

Third, we model female participation rates consistently with education catch-up.

Finally, we disentangle real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates from relative price effects through a consistent Balassa-Samuelson effect.