CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale

MaGE is a macroeconometric model of the world economy made for projecting the global shifts of current century.

Based on a three-factor production function of labour, capital and energy, plus two forms of technological change, we propose long-run growth scenarios for 167 countries at the 2050 horizon, among which the main scenario is available as the EconMap database.

Our model is fitted with United Nations and International Labour Office labour projections, and econometric estimations of (i) capital accumulation, (ii) saving rates, (iii) relationship between saving rates and investment rates, (iv) education, (v) female participation, and (vi) technological progress (which includes energy and total factor productivity).

 Methodology: a Short Description
Our study provides four novelties.

First, we account for energy constraints by including its consumption in the production function and by taking account of rents accruing to oil exporting countries.

Second, we estimate a non-unitary relationship between savings and investment, departing from assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility.

Third, we model female participation rates consistently with education catch-up.

Finally, we disentangle real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates from relative price effects through a consistent Balassa-Samuelson effect.
MaGE model is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution - Non Commercial 3.0 Unported License.