CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Thursday September 23, 2021
2.30-4.00 - webinar
Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter? Webinar with Andrés Fernández,  Head of the Research Department at the Central Bank of Chile  

Andrés Fernández
Head of the Research Department at the Central Bank of Chile
Dr. Andrés Fernández will present his work "Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter?" co-authored with Stéphanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martin Uribe. 

This paper investigates empirically the role of the commodity price super cycle in explaining real activity in developed and emerging economies. The commodity price super cycle is defined as a common permanent component in real commodity prices. Estimates using quarterly and annual data from 1960 to 2018 indicate that world shocks that affect commodity prices and the world interest rate explain more than half of the variance of output growth on average across countries. However, the majority of this contribution, more than two thirds, stems from stationary world shocks. These results suggest that world disturbances that are responsible for low frequency movements in commodity prices play an important but not dominant role in driving fluctuations in aggregate activity at the country level.
Contact: conferencesatcepii.fr