CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Accounting for changes in the Eurozone trade structure


Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio
Valérie Mignon

 Points clés :
  • We analyze how trade with China and Eastern Europe impacts exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices for five Eurozone countries.
  • We find that pass-through is complete in many cases, especially when considering Chinese imports.
  • There is no compelling evidence of a generalized link between ERPT and trade liberalization.
  • The launch of the single currency has not provoked a sufficient change in the part of trade exposed to exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, has not affected the pass-through.

 Résumé :
This paper assesses whether the emergence of new trading partners (i.e., China and Eastern Europe) as suppliers reduces the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in Eurozone countries which differ regarding their external exposure. Using bilateral data on import prices at the two-digit sector level, we find that (i) pass-through is complete in many cases, (ii) ERPT from China is higher than from the United States, and (iii) there is no compelling evidence of a generalized link between ERPT and the increasing integration of some emerging markets in European imports. We also show that the launch of the single currency has not provoked a sufficient change in the part of trade exposed to exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, has not affected the pass-through. Overall, the trend of liberalization in new players' markets has not altered the competitive environment such as to induce exporters of other countries to absorb exchange rate depreciations.

 Mots-clés : Exchange Rate Pass-through | Import Prices | China | Eastern Europe | Eurozone

 JEL : E31, F31, F4, C22
CEPII Working Paper
N°2019-08, June 2019

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Monnaie & Finance
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