CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
MaGE 3.1: Long-Term Macroeconomic Projections of the World Economy


Lionel Fontagné
Erica Perego
Gianluca Santoni

 Points clés :
  • What will the global economy look like in a generation? The answer depends on the multiple forces driving long-term growth (demography, education, diusion of technical progress, energy costs, investment and saving behaviour, international capital mobility) and requires a comprehensive framework to conceptualise them.
  • We estimate a the three-factor (capital, energy, labour) MAcro-econometric model of the Global Economy (MaGE), with a database covering 170 countries using state-of-the-art methods.
  • The model projections to 2050 illustrate the expected changes in the World economy and their driving forces. In light of the projected volume of energy consumption, making these projections compatible with climate imperatives calls for increased technology sharing at the international level in order to decouple economic growth from energy use.

 Résumé :
CEPII working paper 2021-12 : new updated version releases in May 2022.
 
What will the global economy look like in a generation? The answer depends on the multiple forces driving long-term growth (demography, education, diffusion of technical progress, energy costs, investment and saving behaviour, international capital mobility) and requires a comprehensive framework to conceptualise them. We re-estimate the three-factor (capital, energy, labour) MAcro-econometric model of the Global Economy (MaGE), initially developed by Fouré et al. (2013), with a database covering 170 countries using state-of-the-art methods. We thus establish the long-term structural relationships that drive the dynamics of the World economy. The model projections to 2050 illustrate the expected changes in the World economy and their driving forces. In light of the projected volume of energy consumption, making these projections compatible with climate imperatives calls for increased technology sharing at the international level in order to decouple economic growth from energy use.


 Mots-clés : Growth Models | Long-term Growth | Energy Use | Total Factor Productivity | Energy Efficiency

 JEL : O.04, E01, F01, F64
CEPII Working Paper
N°2021-12, May 2021

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