CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Are Mass Layoffs Individually Costly But Socially Beneficial?


Axelle Arquié
Thomas Grjebine

 Points clés :
  • We assess both individual and aggregate effects of mass layoffs, using a unique quantitative definition of those events.
  • Displaced workers suffer a long-lasting increase in the probability of being unemployed and, for those who find a job, a decrease in their salary.
  • Firms that hire displaced workers exhibit lower investment rates, decreased value added, and a reduced workforce, with a higher proportion of employees on fixed-term contracts.
  • Mass layoffs do not contribute to the enhancement of allocative efficiency, as the most skilled workers are less likely to be matched with the most successful establishments.
  • Six years after the mass layoff event, the local unemployment rate is 12% higher in affected areas compared to unaffected regions with a diminished share of new establishment creation.

 Résumé :
Relying on rich administrative data, this paper examines the adaptive capabilities of the French labor market in the aftermath of large-scale layoffs in the manufacturing sector. We assess both individual and aggregate effects of these shocks, using a unique quantitative definition of mass layoffs. We first show that displaced workers suffer a long-lasting increase in the probability of being unemployed and, for those who find a job, a decrease in their salary. While mass layoffs entail costs for displaced workers, there is a possible social benefit if they result in productive reallocation of workers to the most innovative companies and in the creation of new firms. Remarkably, our findings indicate that firms that hire displaced workers exhibit lower investment rates, decreased value added, and a reduced workforce, with a higher proportion of employees on fixed-term contracts. Additionally, mass layoffs do not contribute to the enhancement of allocative efficiency, as the most skilled workers are less likely to be matched with the most successful establishments. Furthermore, we assess the extent to which local economies adapt to these shocks, revealing that, six years after the mass layoff event, the local unemployment rate is 12% higher in comparison to unaffected regions. Lastly, the affected areas experience a diminished share of new establishment creation.


 Mots-clés : Mass layoffs | Sorting

 JEL : J31, J42
CEPII Working Paper
N°2024-03, January 2024

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