CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All?


Anne Célia Disdier
Charlotte Emlinger
Jean Fouré

 Highlights :
  • Whatever the scenario simulated for the Pacific deal (inclusion of NTMs, extra-members), the Atlantic deal would be more profitable to the US but not necessarily in agri-food sectors.
  • The Pacific countries overall have more to loose from the conclusion of an Atlantic-only partnership than the EU countries from the achievement of a Pacific-only partnership(in terms of agri-food and total exports).
  • The Pacific agreement may have a differentiated impact on the EU agri-food exports to the US: a deep agreement (including NTM cuts) could generate a strong reduction of these exports, while the inclusion of extra-members (e.g. China and India) could increase them in some specific sectors.

 Abstract :
Trade liberalization of the agri-food sector is a sensitive topic in both TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) and TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) discussions. This paper first provides an overview of the current flows and trade barriers. Using a general equilibrium model of international trade (the MIRAGE model), it then assesses the potential impact of these two agreements on agri-food trade and value added. Results suggest that the US would gain from both agreements for their agri-food sectors, while almost all their partners and third countries would benefit less and even register losses in some sectors. The two agreements however do not compete much one with the other, since all defensive and offensive interests of contracting parties are complementary. Finally, the Atlantic trade may be impacted by the inclusion of standards harmonization within the Pacific Agreement but not by its extension to additional members (e.g. China or India).

 Keywords : Mega-trade deals | Agri-food | CGE model | Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership | Trans-Pacific Partnership

 JEL : f13, f15, q17
CEPII Working Paper
N°2015-10, July 2015

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Commerce & Mondialisation
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