Exchange Rates: a Global Perspective Réunion
  28 février 2006
The link between the euro/dollar exchange rate and the transatlantic interest-rate differential has proved to be quite robust over the past. Although growing current account deficits in the United States still nourish the view that the dollar should depreciate in the medium run, such depreciation stopped in 2005, in part due to strong monetary policy reversal from the Fed. Asian central-bank interventions as well as OPEC countries portfolio choices in relationship to the sharp rise in the oil price may have also played a role. How is the situation going to evolve in 2006? If the dollar does not depreciate, then how can global imbalances be solved without a major world slowdown? Is China going to genuinely implement its announced regime change, and what will be the impact on the euro/dollar and yen/dollar exchange rates, and on intra-Asian exchange rates? When and on what grounds could official interventions and international cooperation be justified?

Compte rendu du Club du CEPII
Stephen Jen Managing Director, Head of Currency Research, Morgan Stanley (Londres) Intervenant
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Directeur-adjoint du CEPII ; Professeur d’Economie, Université de Paris X Nanterre Discutants
Jean-Luc Schneider Sous-directeur Analyses macroéconomiques, DGTPE, MINEFI
Philippe Bouyoux Directeur, chargé des questions de politiques économiques, DGTPE , MINEFI Président
Exchange Rates: a Global Perspective