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EcoMod2004
International Conference on Policy Modeling |
Conference |
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June 30-July 2, 2004
Paris |
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June 30, 2004 |
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Registration |
8:00 |
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Lionel Fontagné |
CEPII
University of Paris I |
Opening Session |
9:00 |
| Pierre-Yves Hénin |
University of Paris I |
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| Ali Bayar |
EcoMod Network
Brussels University |
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| Macroeconomic
Dynamics and Monetary Policy |
Plenary Session I |
9:15 |
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André Dramais |
European Commission |
Chair |
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| Macroeconomic
Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective |
Hashem Pesaran |
University
of Cambridge |
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| Monetary
Transmission in the Euro Area: Does the Interest Rate Channel Explain All? |
Ignazio
Angeloni |
ECB |
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| Benoit Mojon |
ECB |
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Parallel Sessions |
11:00 - 12:30 |
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Regional
Modelling |
Session
1 |
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Alejandro
Cardenete |
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Chair |
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| Fiscal
Equalisation and Efficiency |
Sophia
Levtchenkova |
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| Jeffrey D
Petchey |
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| Regional
Policy, Regional Inequalities and Enlargement of the European Union |
Jesus Lopez-Rodriguez |
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| J.Andrés
Faina-Medin |
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| Multiplier
Decomposition Within Regional SAMs: the Case of Andalusia |
Carmen Lima |
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| Alejandro
Cardenete |
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Forecasting
and Projection Methods |
Session 2 |
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Wojciech
Charemza |
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Chair |
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| Kalman
Filter Estimation of Property Price Bubbles in Seoul |
Qin Xiao |
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Tan Gee Kwang |
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| State
Space Models, Vector Autoregression and Bayesian VAR: a Competition for the Forecasting
of French Economic Variables |
Alain Maurin |
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| Jean
Gabriel Montauban |
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| Optimal
Timing and Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy: the Case of Poland and Russia |
Wojciech Charemza |
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| Svetlana Makarova |
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Public
Economics |
Session 3 |
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Vicente Paqueo |
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Chair |
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| Addiction
and Smoking Behaviour in Italy |
Silvia
Tiezzi |
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| Assessing
Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in France: an I(2) Analysis |
Jean Boissinot |
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| Clotilde L’Angevin |
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| Brieuc Monfort |
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| Social
Sector Expenditures and Rainy-Day Funds |
Vicente
Paqueo |
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| Christian
Gonzalez |
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Monetary
Issues |
Session 4 |
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Timo Wollmershaeuser |
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Chair |
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| Currency
Substitution, Portfolio Diversification and Money Demand |
Miguel Lebre
de Freitas |
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| Regime
Dependence between the Official and Parallel Foreign Currency Markets for US Dollars
in Greece |
Georgios Kouretas |
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| Angelos Kanas |
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| Sterilized
Foreign Exchange Market Interventions in a Chartist-Fundamentalist Exchange Rate
Model |
Timo Wollmershaeuser |
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| Robert
Schmidt |
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Macroeconometric
Modeling |
Session 5 |
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Balázs
Egert |
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Chair |
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| Econometric
Modelling of the Inflation Process in the Transition Economies. With application
to the Baltic states |
Boriss Siliverstovs |
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| Niklas Ahlgren |
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| Mikael Juselius |
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| Dynamics
of Loans in Polish Banking System |
Jan Gadomski |
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| Equilibrium
Real Exchange Rates in Acceding Countries: How Large is Our Confidence (Interval)? |
Balázs
Egert |
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| Kirsten Lommatzsch |
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| Impact
and Scenario Analysis |
Session 6 |
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Ginta Uzulina |
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Chair |
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| Impacts
of the Euro-Tunisian Agreements of Free Exchange : Evaluation by a Computable
General Equilibrium Model in 1996 |
Haykel Hadj
Salem |
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| Dutch
AG-MEMOD model; Baseline Projections and Crop Policy Simulation |
Myrna Van
Leeuwen |
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| Andrzej Tabeau |
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| Statistical
Model for Evaluating Decisions in the Context of the Common Agricultural Policy |
Ginta Uzulina |
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Parallel Sessions |
14:00 - 15:30 |
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Growth |
Session
1 |
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Raul Barreto |
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Chair |
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| Preference
Dynamics and Potential Growth, Getting the Work Done by Friday |
Andre Kolodziejak |
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| Jan Peil |
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| Human
Capital Accumulation and Wage Inequality with Scale-Independent North -South Technological
Diffusion |
Alvaro Aguiar |
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| Oscar
Afonso |
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| A
Model of State Infrastructure with Decentralized Public Agents: Theory and Evidense |
Raul Barreto |
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Energy
and Environmental Policy |
Session 2 |
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Susmita Dasgupta |
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Chair |
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Effects
of Green Tax Reforms in Spain. A New Analytical Approach
Integrating Micro and Macro-Economic Models |
Xavier Labandeira |
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| José
M. Labeaga |
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| Miguel Rodriguez |
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| A
Computable General Equilibrium Assessment of Clean Development Projects |
Hans Kremers |
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| Claudia
Kemfert |
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| Truong Truong |
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| The
Economics of Regional Poverty-Environment Programs: an Application for Lao PDR |
Susmita Dasgupta |
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| Piet
Buys |
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| Kexnneth M.
Chomitz |
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| Uwe
Deichmann |
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| Craig M. Meisner |
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| David R. Wheeler |
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| Modeling:
New Developments |
Session 3 |
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Christian
Muller |
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Chair |
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| Relationship
Between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Empirical Evidence from Bahrain's Financial
Markets |
Rizwan
Tahir |
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| Ahmed A. Ghani |
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| European
Monetary Union and Fiscal Policy Sustainability |
Bodo Herzog |
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| Interpretation
of Cointegration Coefficients - A Paradox, a Solution and Empirical Evidence |
Christian
Muller |
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Public
Finance |
Session 4 |
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Can Erbil |
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Chair |
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| Intergovernmental
Finance and Local Government System in Turkey: Experiences and Lessons to be Learned
from Poland |
Serap
Bindebir |
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| Explaining
Efficiency Differences of New Zealand Secondary Schools |
Robert Alexander |
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| Mohammad
Jaforullah |
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| Revealing
Turkey´s Public Debt Burden - A Transparent Payments Approach |
Can
Erbil |
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| Ferhan Salman |
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Macroeconometric
Modeling |
Session 5 |
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Ferdy Adam |
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Chair |
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A
Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy
(A-LMM) |
Thomas Url |
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| Josef Baumgartner |
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| Helmut Hofer |
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| Serguei Kaniovski |
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| Andreas U.
Schuh |
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| A
Macroeconometric Model for the Republic of Macedonia |
Vesna Bucevska |
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| Modelling
a Small Open Economy: What is Different? The Case of Luxembourg |
Ferdy Adam |
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EU
Enlargement |
Session 6 |
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Jean-Louis
Brillet |
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Chair |
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| Tourism
and EU Accession in Malta and Cyprus |
Adam
Blake |
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| M.
Thea Sinclair |
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| The
Impacts of EU Accession for Malta |
Ali
Bayar |
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| The
Consequences of EU Accession for Poland - Simulations Using the MacSim System |
Jean-Louis
Brillet |
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| Anna
Kruszewska |
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Parallel Sessions |
16:00 - 18:00 |
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Labor
Market Issues |
Session 1 |
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André
Dramais |
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Chair |
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| Do
Labour Taxes (and their Composition) Affect Wages in the Short and the Long Run? |
Alfonso Arpaia |
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| Giuseppe Carone |
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| Why
Do Firms hire so Few Top Skilled Workers? A Model of Knowledge Transfer Within
Firms |
Aurora Amélia
Castro Teixeira |
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| Pedro Cosme
da Costa Vieira |
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| Unions,
Wages and Productivity. The Spanish Case, 1986-2000 |
Blanca Sanchez-Robles |
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| Nuria
Sanchez-Sanchez, |
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| Pablo
Coto Millan |
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| Goodwin
“Growth-Cycle” Model and the NAIRU |
André
Dramais |
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Energy
and Environmental Policy |
Session 2 |
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Michael Kohlhaas |
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Chair |
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| Green
Accounting and Climate Change Problem: A New Evidence from the Turkish Economy |
Olfa Jaballi |
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| Sebnem
Sahin |
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| Are
Economic Goals and Goals of Environmental Protection Compatible? Explaining Paths
to a Sustainable Economy |
Helmut
Maier |
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| Quantification
of Scenarios for Long-Term Economic and Transport Trends with ASTRA |
Michael Krail |
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| Wolfgang
Schade |
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| Economic,
Environmental and International Trade Effects of the EU Directive on Energy Tax
Harmonization |
Michael Kohlhaas |
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| Martin Cames |
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| Jochen Diekmann |
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| Dieter Schumacher |
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| Katja Schumacher |
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Trade
Issues |
Session 3 |
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Tran Van Hoa |
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Chair |
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| Product
Differentiation and Trade: An Example From the Bovine Meat Sector |
Sophie Drogue |
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| Stephan Marette |
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| Priscila Ramos |
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| Using
Flexible McFadden Export Supply and Import Demand Functions for Bilateral Trade
Policy Analysis |
Etti Maria
Winter |
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| Klaus Frohberg |
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| Export
Supply and Trade Reform: The Turkish Evidence |
Utku Utkulu |
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| Dilek Seymen |
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| Aydin Ari |
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| ASEAN+3
Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Asia-Europe Trade and Economic Relations:
A New Modelling Approach |
Tran Van Hoa |
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Monetary
Issues |
Session 4 |
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Alvaro Aguiar |
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Chair |
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| An
Attempt to Modelize the ECB Monetary Policy |
Blanca
Sanchez-Robles |
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| Adolfo Maza
Fernandez |
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| Price
Convergence in the European Union Countries |
Pawel Gajewski |
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| Jakub Kowalski |
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| Modelling
of Structural Changes in Demand for Money Cointegration Relations |
Hannu Koskinen |
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| Effects
of Labor Market Reform on the Efficiency of Monetary Policy |
Alvaro Aguiar |
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| Ana Paula
Ribeiro |
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Finance |
Session 5 |
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Konrad Richter |
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Chair |
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| The
Dependency of Extreme Returns on Stock Indices Across Borders in Bull and Bear
Periods |
Angi
Rosch |
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| Harald Schmidbauer |
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| Asset
Pricing with Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and Limited Participation |
Andrei Semenov |
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| High-Order
Consumption Moments and Asset Pricing |
Andrei Semenov |
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| Revenue
Equivalence Revisited: Bounded Rationality in Auctions |
Konrad Richter |
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Regional
Modeling |
Session 6 |
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David
Laborde |
CIREM - CEPII |
Chair |
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| Trade
Liberalization, Agglomeration and Public Policies: the Case of the European Regional
Policies |
Susana
Iranzo |
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| GreenMod:
A New Modeling Platform for Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis at the Regional,
National, and Sectoral Levels |
Ali Bayar |
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| Frédéric
Dramais |
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| Cristina Mohora |
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| Masudi Opese |
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| The
Impact of Multilateral Liberalisation on European Regions: a CGE Assessment |
David
Laborde |
CIREM - CEPII |
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| Sébastien Jean |
CEPII |
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July 1st, 2004 |
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Is
Agriculture the Key to Unlock the WTO Doha Round?
A Glance at the Recent Results of CGE Modeling |
Plenary Session II |
9:00 - 10:30 |
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Lionel Fontagné |
CEPII
University of Paris I |
Chair |
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Jean-Christophe
Bureau |
INRA |
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Aziz Elbehri |
US Dpt of
Agriculture |
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Robert
Koopman |
US
ITC |
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Frank Vantongeren |
Wageningen
University Agricultural Economics Research Institute |
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Parrallel Sessions |
11:00 - 12:30 |
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Agricultural
Issues |
Session 1 |
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Bruno Henry
de Frahan |
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Chair |
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| Modelling
the Impact of Sugar Reform on Belgian Agriculture |
Jeroen Buysse |
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| Bruno Fernagut |
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| Olivier Harmignie |
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| Bruno Henry
de Frahan |
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| Ludwig Lauwers |
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| Philippe Polomé |
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| Guido Van
Huylenbroeck |
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| Jef Van Meensel |
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| Explorations
of Structural Change in Agricultural Industries |
Martin Cloutier |
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| Robin Rowley |
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| Francis Declerck |
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| Impact
of the "Everything but Arms" Initiative on the EU Sugar Sub-Sector |
Marcel Adenauer |
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| Kamel Louhichi |
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| Bruno Henry
de Frahan |
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| Heinz Peter
Witzke |
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Tax
Policy |
Session 2 |
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Knud Jorgen
Munk |
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Chair |
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| Economic
Growth and Optimal Income Tax Evasion |
Oscar Mauricio
Valencia Arana |
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| Should
Countries Control International Profit Shifting? |
Xavier Wauthy |
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| Susana Peralta |
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| Tanguy Van
Ypersele |
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| Tax-Tariff
Reform with Costs of Tax Administrations |
Knud Jorgen
Munk |
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Trade
Issues |
Session 3 |
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Mario Larch |
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Chair |
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| Pricing
to Market in Norwegian Seafood Exports |
Tor Hugo Hauge |
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| Frank Asche |
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| Voluntary
Export Restraints (VERs) and the Question of Quality Upgrading |
Ahmed El-Shaarawi |
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| The
Home Market Effect in Models with Multinational Enterprises |
Mario Larch |
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Monetary
Issues |
Session 4 |
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Karsten Staehr |
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Chair |
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| Quantifying
the Effects of Abandoning National Monetary Policy |
Oliver Holtemoller |
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| Hungary’s
Eurozone Entry Date: Wh at Do the Markets Think and What If They Change Their
Mind? |
Andras
Rezessy |
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| Attila Csajbok |
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| Inflation
Dynamics and Nominal Adjustment in the Baltic States |
Karsten Staehr |
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| Jaan Masso |
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Developing
Countries |
Session 5 |
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David Stifel |
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Chair |
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| Impact
Assessment of Thailand’s Promotion of Strategic Export Industries: A Computable
General Equilibrium Model (CGE) Approach |
Kriengsak
Chareonwongsak |
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| Economic
Effects of Information Technology Oriented Joint Ventures in China: A CGE Analysis |
Lars
Wang |
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| Hidekazu
Itoh |
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| Rice
Prices, Agricultural Input Subsidies, Transactions Costs and Seasonality: A Multi-Market
Model Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) for Madagascar |
David Stifel |
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| Jean-Claude
Randrianarisoa |
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Macroeconometric
Modelling |
Session 6 |
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|
Khusnia Muradova |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| On
the “Response-Diffusion” Model in US Economic Safety Problem |
Vladimir Baranov |
|
|
|
| Viktor Dvurechenskikh |
|
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|
|
|
|
| China_QEM:
A Quarterly Macroeconometric Model o f China |
Xinhua He, |
|
|
|
| Haiying Wu |
|
|
|
| Shiguo Liu |
|
|
|
| Ling Wang |
|
|
|
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|
|
|
| Uzbek
Macroeconomic Model with Elements of Market Equilibrium (New Edition) |
Khusnia Muradova |
|
|
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|
|
|
Parallel Sessions |
14:00 - 15:30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agricultural
Issues |
Session 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Steve Harrison |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| An
Alternative Markup Pricing and Protection Rate: Evidence From Wheat in Iran |
Mohammad Bakhshoodeh |
|
|
|
| M Zibael |
|
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|
| Land
Contract as a Two-sided Occupational Choice: New Evidence of Risk -Sharing in
India |
Tiziana Brancaccio |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
| Designing,
Developing and Testing Financial Models for Non-industrial Private Forestry |
Steve Harrison |
|
|
|
| Nick Emtage |
|
|
|
| John Herbohn |
|
|
|
| Tyron Venn |
|
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|
Energy
and Environmental Policy |
Session 2 |
|
|
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|
|
Burkhard Schade |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Trade-Off
Between Carbon Emissions, Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in India |
Vijay Ojha |
|
|
|
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|
|
| Future
Emissions of Air Pollutants in Indonesia: SO2 and NOx |
Armi Susandi |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
| Evaluating
Economic Feasibility and Technical Progress of Environmentally Sustainable Scenarios
by a Backcasting Approach with ESCOT |
Burkhard Schade |
|
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|
|
EU
Enlargement |
Session 3 |
|
|
|
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|
|
|
Christian
Muller |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Add
Value Model for Romanian’s Export Products |
Adriana Grigorescu |
|
|
|
| Constantin
Bob |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Tax
Harmonization and Public Expenditures Restructuring in Romania, in the Process
of Preparation for the EU Accession – A CGE Modeling Exercise |
Ali Bayar |
|
|
|
| Peter Cornelisse |
|
|
|
| Peter van
der Hoek |
|
|
|
| Cristina Mohora |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Despite
or Because - Lessons of German Unification for EU Enlargement? |
Christian
Muller |
|
|
|
| Ulrich Busch |
|
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|
|
Monetary
Issues |
Session 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roselyne Joyeux |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Modeling
Credit Aggregates |
Maria Teresa
Valderrama |
|
|
|
| Sylvia Kaufmann |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Stability
of Final Objective of the European Monetary Authorities |
Frédérique
Sibi |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest
Linkages Between the US, UK, French and German Interest Rates: A Test of the German
Dominance Hypothesis |
Roselyne Joyeux |
|
|
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|
Developing
Countries |
Session 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Erdal Atukeren |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Structural
Reforms, Macroeconomic Policies and the Future of Kazakhstan Economy |
Gilles Dufrenot |
|
|
|
| Alain Sand |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| The
Effectiveness of Malaysian Capital Outflow Controls of 1998 |
Jarita Duasa |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interactions
Between Public and Private Investment: Evidence from Developing Countries |
Erdal Atukeren |
|
|
|
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|
|
Macroeconometric
Modeling |
Session 6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Olena Bilan |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Disinflation
Simulation with Disaggregated Output Gap Model for Hungary |
Viktor Varpalotai |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Modeling
Monetary Policies in China (PRC) |
Duo Qin |
|
|
|
| Xinhua He |
|
|
|
| Pilipinas
Quising |
|
|
|
| Shiguo Liu |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Modelling
Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine |
Olena Bilan |
|
|
|
| Boriss Siliverstovs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Parallel Sessions |
16:00 - 18:00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
TROLL:
Software Demonstration |
Session 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy
and Environmental Policy |
Session 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marc Vielle |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| The
Cost of Sectoral Differentiation of Climate Policy: The Case of the EU Emissions
Trading Scheme |
Steffen Kallbekken |
|
|
|
| Ottar Maestad |
|
|
|
| Nathan Rive |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A
General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts: Methodology and Early
Results |
Roberto Roson |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| An
Empirical Study on the Nuisance Facilities Impact on the Property Value |
Yoshiki Kago |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A
Two-level Computable Equilibrium Model to Assess the Strategic Allocation of Emission
Allowances Within the European Union |
Marc Vielle |
|
|
|
| Laurent Viguier |
|
|
|
| Alain Haurie |
|
|
|
| Alain Bernard |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Trade
Issues |
Session 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
David
Laborde |
CIREM-CEPII |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| The
Sustainable Cooperative Tariffs: a Political Economy Perspective |
Mehdi Racem |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Intra-Industry
Trade and Input Demand |
Kurt Kratena |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| New
Keynesian Open Economy Models versus the Six Major Puzzles in Internation al Macroeconomics |
Stefan
Ried |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| National
Interests, Coalitions and Rules of Decision in Multilateral Trade Negotiations |
David
Laborde |
CIREM-CEPII |
|
|
| Antoine Bouët |
CEPII
University of Pau and the Pays d'Adour |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Growth |
Session 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hasan Kirmanoglu |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-linearities
in Specialization and Growth |
Massimo Tamberi |
|
|
|
| Luca De Benedictis |
|
|
|
| Marco Gallegati |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A
Simple Politico-Economic Model to Predict Vote and Growth in France |
Eric Dubois |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ICT
in a Model of Technology Embedded in Investment |
Sebastian
de Ramon |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Individualism
and Growth Volatility |
Hasan Kirmanoglu |
|
|
|
| Nejat Anbarci |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developing
Countries |
Session 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ya Ping Yin |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lebanon
– Between Market Liberalization and Fiscal Consolidation: A General Equilibrium
Analysis with Imperfect Competition |
Joey Ghaleb |
|
|
|
| Sebastien
Dessus |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Roads
out of Poverty? Assessing the Link between Aid, Public Investment, Growth and
Poverty Reduction |
Pierre Richard
Agenor |
|
|
|
| Nihal Bayraktar |
|
|
|
| Karim El
Aynaoui |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Reforming
the Sri Lankan Employee Provident Fund - A “Historical” and “Counterfactual”
Simulation Perspective |
Ya Ping Yin |
|
|
|
| Kanakaratnam
Arjuna |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Public
Finance |
Session 6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Carlos Martinez-Mongay |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cyclical
Asymmetry in Fisca l Policy, Debt Accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht |
Fabrizio Balassone |
|
|
|
| Maura Francese |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Does
the Growth and Stability Pact Provide an Adequate and Consistent Fiscal Rule? |
Mauro Visaggio |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fiscal
Convergence Before Entering the EMU |
Luca Onorante |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sustainability
of EU Public Finances |
Carlos Martinez-Mongay |
|
|
|
| Fernando Ballabriga |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
July 2nd,
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Parallel Sessions |
9:00 - 10:30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regional
Modeling |
Session 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Maurizio Baussola |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A
Supply-Side Regional Econometric Model of Wales |
James Foreman-Peck |
|
|
|
| Laurian Lungu |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Measuring
Changes in Regional Competitive ness Over Time – a Shift-Share Regression
Exercise |
Oliver Fritz |
|
|
|
| Gerhard Streicher |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Aggregate
Demand and Supply and the Labour Market Within a Regional Econometric Model |
Maurizio Baussola |
|
|
|
| Laura Barbieri |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Labor
Market Issues |
Session 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Niven Winchester |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Evaluating
the Effectiveness of the French Work-Sharing Reform |
Camille Logeay |
|
|
|
| Sven Schreiber |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Discrete
Working Time Choice in an Applied General Equilibrium Model |
Stefan Boeters |
|
|
|
| Michael Feil |
|
|
|
| Nicole Gurtzgenn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Capital-Skill
Complementarity and Rising Wage Inequality in the UK |
Niven Winchester |
|
|
|
| David Greenaway |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sectoral
Issues |
Session 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gulay Gunluk-Senesen |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Is
China’s Rising Service Sector Leading to Cost Disease? |
Duo Qin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Pricing
Policy for Urban Transport in Europe: Looking for an Efficient Solution |
Rita Castellani |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Structural
Change in Import Dependency of Production: Turkey, 1973 -1996 |
Gulay Gunluk-Senesen |
|
|
|
| Umit Senesen |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Monetary
Issues |
Session 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Efrem Castelnuovo |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Stability
Properties of the Nominal Income Targeting Rule in the Open Economy |
Baotai
Wang |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A
Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in Spain: Evidence from Bank Balance Sheets |
Rafaela Pizarro-Barcelo |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regime
Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies |
Efrem Castelnuovo |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
General
Equilibrium Modeling |
Session 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alexandre
Gohin |
CEPII
INRA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Development
of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for Fisheries |
Christos Floros |
|
|
|
| Pierre Failler |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Economic
Evaluation of the Release of Genetically Modified Organisms in New Zealand |
Adolf Stroombergen |
|
|
|
| Kel Sanderson |
|
|
|
| Andy Heinemann |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Evaluating
the Market and Welfare Impacts of Agricultural Policies in Developed Countries:
Comparison of Partial and General Equilibrium Measures |
Alexandre
Gohin |
CEPII
INRA |
|
|
| Giancarlo
Moschini |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Microsimulation
Models |
Session 6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gerlinde Verbist |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Costs
and Benefits of Merger Control in the Netherlands 1998 -2002, An Applied Game
Theoretic Analysis of Prices |
Bas Postema |
|
|
|
| Peter Van
Bergeijk |
|
|
|
| Marie Goppelsröder |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Farming
System Modelling in Tropical Agriculture Using the Software “Olympe” |
Eric Penot |
|
|
|
| O. Deheuvels |
|
|
|
| Ph. Le Grusse |
|
|
|
| M. Lebars |
|
|
|
| J.M. Attonaty |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Capital
Gains Taxation Under Different Tax Regimes, Asset Pricing and Investment Decisions
- a Monte-Carlo-Ssimulation of the Influence of Tax Systems on Dividend and Timing
Behaviour |
Caren Sureth |
|
|
|
| Dirk Langeleh |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Taxes
and Redistribution. An International Comparison Using EUROMOD, the Euro pean Microsimulationmodel |
Gerlinde Verbist |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Parallel Sessions |
11:00 - 12:30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Labor
Market Issues |
Session 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Michael Grimm |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gender
and Ethnicity in the New Zealand Labour Market |
Robert Alexander |
|
|
|
| Murat Genc |
|
|
|
| Mohammad Jaforullah |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Digital
Sector and Foreign Direct Investment - A Case of India |
Madhu Bala |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Linking
Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis: A
Comparison of Alternative Methodologies |
Pierre -Richard
Agenor |
|
|
|
| Derek H. C.
Chen |
|
|
|
| Michael Grimm |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Money
and Finance |
Session 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vincent Touzé |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Should
Central Banks React to Exchange Rate Movements? An Analysis of the Robustness
of Simple Policy Rules under Exchange Rate Uncertainty |
Timo Wollmershaeuser |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Real
Effects of Nominal Shocks: a 2-Sector Dynamic Model with Slow Capital Adjustment
and Money-in-the-Utility |
Peter Benczur |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| INGENUE
v.2: a World OLG-CGE Model with Imperfect Financial Markets, Exchange Rates and
Stochastic Lifetime |
Vincent Touzé |
|
|
|
| Michel Aglietta |
|
|
|
| Jean Chateau |
|
|
|
| Gilles Le
Garrec |
|
|
|
| Michel Juillard |
|
|
|
| Jacques
Le Cacheux |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Trade
Issues |
Session 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Elena Ianchovichina |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MFA
Quota Removal and Global Textile and Cotton Trade: Estimating Quota Trade Restrictiveness
and Quantifying Post-MFA Trade Patterns |
Aziz Elbehri |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| An
International Input-Output Analysis on the Effects of Free Trade Agreements in
Asia |
Takashi Yano |
|
|
|
| Hiroyuki Kosaka |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Duty
Drawbacks, Competitiveness and Growth: Should China Reform its Duty Drawback System? |
Elena Ianchovichina |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Monetary
Issues |
Session 4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Willi Semmler |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A
Policy-Sensible Core -Inflation Measure for the Euro Area |
Stefano Siviero |
|
|
|
| Giovanni
Veronese |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Inflation
Uncertainty and Risk Premium in Interest Rates: Case of Turkey |
Selahattin
Bekmez |
|
|
|
| Cem Mehmet
Baydur |
|
|
|
| Esat Bakimli |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Monetary
Policy Rules with Nonlinear Philips Curve and Endogenous Nairu |
Willi Semmler |
|
|
|
| Wenlang Zhang |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developping
Countries |
Session 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Denise Konan |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A
Dynamic Multisectoral Analysis of Jordan's Trade Liberalisation |
Omar Feraboli |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Is
WTO Dispute Settlement System Biased Against Developing Countries? An Empirical
Analysis |
Fabien Besson |
|
|
|
| Mehdi Racem |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Assessing
the Benefits of Telecommunications Liberalization to Tunisia |
Ari Van Assche |
|
|
|
| Denise Konan |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Finance |
Session 6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yunus Aksoy |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quantifying
the Risk of Deflation |
Lutz Kilian |
|
|
|
| Simone Manganelli |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Are
Real Interest Differentials Caused by Frictions in Goods or Assets Markets, Real
or Nominal Shocks? |
Alex Luiz
Ferreira |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest
Rates and Output in the Long Run |
Yunus Aksoy |
|
|
|
| Miguel Leon-Ledesma |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Parallel Sessions |
14:00 - 15:30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Labor
Market Issues |
Session 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cristina Cattaneo |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A
Political Preference Analysis for Informal Labor Force in Turkey |
Selahattin
Bekmez |
|
|
|
| Omer Faruk
Colak |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| International
Migration to Germany: A CGE-Analysis of Labour Market Impact |
Michael Kohlhaas |
|
|
|
| Herbert Brucker |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| The
Determinants of Actual Migration and the Role of Wages and Unemployment in Albania:
an Empirical Analysis |
Cristina Cattaneo |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy
and Environmental Policy |
Session 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sergey Paltsev |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Is
There an Economic System in the Nature? Results of a Hedonic Approach Including
a Vision to Explain and Meet Problems of Human Societies |
Helmut Maier |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Factors
Determining Environmental Kuznets Curve: SustainabilityAssessment and Implications
for Policy Makers |
Nicola Cantore |
|
|
|
| Vania Paccagnan |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Air
Pollution Health Effects: Toward an Integrated Assessment |
Sergey Paltsev |
|
|
|
| John Reilly |
|
|
|
| Trent Yang |
|
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|
Trade
Issues |
Session 3 |
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|
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|
Patrick Watson |
|
Chair |
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| The
Effect of Trade Partners Economic Stability on Economic Development of Latvia |
Ilga Karlsone |
|
|
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| Ilmars Skards |
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| Ella Skvorcova |
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| Would
MERCOSUR´s Exports to the EU Profit from Trade Liberalisation ? Some General
Insights and a Simulation Study for Argentina |
Felicitas
Nowak-Lehmann |
|
|
|
| Inmaculada
Martinez-Zarzoso |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
| Evaluating
the Impact of Tariff Removals and Terms-of-Trade Changes on the Trinidad &
Tobago Economy |
Patrick Watson |
|
|
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| Kyren
Greigg |
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|
Business
Cycles |
Session 4 |
|
|
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|
Pedro Perez-Vazquez |
|
Chair |
|
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| Specialisation
Patterns and the Synchronicity of Regional Employment Cycles in Europe |
Ansgar Belke |
|
|
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| Jens H. Heine |
|
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| Prediction
of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany |
Ulrich Fritsche |
|
|
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| Vladimir Kouzine |
|
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|
|
| The
International Business Cycle in a Changing World:Volatility and the Propagation
of Shocks |
Pedro Perez-Vazquez |
|
|
|
| Denise Osborn |
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|
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| Michael Artis |
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Public
Finance and Growth |
Session 5 |
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|
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|
Durmus Özdemir |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| The
Quality of Brazilian Fiscal Adjustment, 1999 - 2001 |
Santiago Herrera |
|
|
|
| Fernando Blanco |
|
|
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|
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| Financial
System Development, Regulation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Russia |
Ulrich Thiessen |
|
|
|
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|
|
| The
Peace Dividend: A Case for Turkey and Greece |
Durmus Özdemir |
|
|
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| Ali Bayar |
|
|
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| Leonidas
Paroussos |
|
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|
Finance |
Session 6 |
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|
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|
Romulo Chumacero |
|
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| An
Empirical Study of the Impact of Finance on Production and Growth |
Hong Nguyen |
|
|
|
| Michael O.
Mensah |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Accounting
for Estimation Risk in CAPM -generated Forecasts of Firm Earnings Growth |
Salvatore
Terregrossa |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Firms’
Dynamic Adjustment to Target Capital Structures during Transition |
Ralph De Haas |
|
|
|
| Marga Peeters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quantifying
the Costs of Investment Limits for Chilean Pension Funds |
Romulo Chumacero |
|
|
|
| Solange Berstein |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Modeling
the Labor Market and Poverty in Developing Countries |
Plenary Session IIII |
16:00 - 17:00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Katheline
Schubert |
University
of Paris I |
Chair |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Incorporating
Poverty and Income Distribution Analysis in Economywide CGE Models |
Sherman Robinson |
IFPRI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Globalization,
Growth and Poverty in Senegal: A Micro Simulation Approach in a Dynamic Context |
Nabil Annabi |
University
of Laval |
|
|
| Fatou Cisse |
|
|
| John Cockburn |
|
|
| Bernard Decaluwé |
|
|
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|
Closing Ceremony |
17:00 - 17:15 |
|
|
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|
Ali Bayar |
EcoMod Network
Brussels University |
|
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