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Turkey-Europe:
From a Customs Union to the European Union |
Agnès Chevallier
Guillaume Gaulier
Deniz Ünal |
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December
2004
N° 240 |
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European Council
held on 15 December 2004 opened the way to membership negotiations between the
European Union and Turkey. The Lettre du CEPII published last September1 indicated
how this process was likely to consolidate the macroeconomic stabilisation and
reforms presently underway. It should also deepen Turkey’s regional integration.
This integration, which was reinforced by the customs union of 1996, is taking
place in an original way that is different from that of the other new Member States
of the Union or other candidate countries. The two sectors which account for most
of Turkey’s exports – textiles & clothing and vehicles –
are experiencing a transformation in competitive conditions in both the national
and international markets. In both cases, trade liberalisation within the Euro-Mediterranean
area and the adoption of the acquis communautaire will play a key role in defining
Turkery’ new trade specialisations... |
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mmmmThe
Narrow Road to EMU Enlargement |
Amina Lahrèche-Révil |
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April 2004
N° 233 |
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The accession
of ten new members to the European Union on the 1 May 2004 is not the end of the
enlargement process: joining the euro area will be the next step for these countries.
To do this, they will have to fulfil the criteria set out in the Maastricht Treaty,
in particular the membership of the ERM II for at least two years. This requirement,
however, leads to uncertainties, as economic convergence is not consistent with
exchange rate stability for all countries. The success of ERM membership will
also depend on the central parities chosen, the sustainability of current account
financing and on containing the uncertainties which could affect the stability
of expectations. Monetary enlargement may therefore be very progressive, concerning
the "small countries" first, which presently have fixed exchange rates,
and only later affecting the “large” new Member States. |
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Less
Tax in the East |
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Delphine Prady |
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March 2004
N° 232 |
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The tax cuts
which have been introduced in most European countries in recent years have led
to fears of tax competition which could worsen inequalities, weaken the quality
of public infrastructure and public services, or lead public finances to be unsustainable.
The enlargement of the European Union has deepened such concerns. Taxes in Eastern
Europe are generally far lower than in the eu15, and these countries seem to have
adopted a low-tax strategy for mobile tax bases, so that companies are taxed relatively
little, often far less than their distance from “the heart of Europe”
would justify. In contrast, taxes on labour and vat are generally at levels close
to those observed in the former eu. Such a tax strategy by the new members, which
favours foreign direct investment, is debatable as it risks favouring tax optimisation
rather than employment. |
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How
Different is Eastern Europe? Structure and Determinants of Location Choices by
French Firms in Eastern and Western Europe |
Anne-Célia
Disdier
Thierry Mayer |
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September 2003
N° 2003-13 |
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We study in this
paper the determinants of location choices of French multinational firms in Eastern
and Western Europe. Our sample includes 1843 location choices in 19 countries
over the years 1980 to 1999. Our results suggest there might be important differences
between the two regions of Europe concerning these determinants. Noticeably, agglomeration
effects are less strong in CEECs than in European Union countries. Location decisions
are significantly and positively influenced by the institutional quality of the
host country. Our work also investigates whether investors consider Western Europe
and Eastern Europe as two distinct groups of potential host countries. We confirm
the relevance of an East-West structure in the country location decision and also
show that the relevance of this structure decreases as the transition process
advances... |
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Estimating
the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries.
The EMU Enlargement Perspective |
Balazs Egert
Amina Lahrèche-Révil |
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June 2003
N° 2003-05 |
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This paper offers
an empirical analysis of the real equilibrium exchange rate for 5 Central and
Eastern European (CEE) countries in the prospect of their future E(M)U entry.
The fundamental equilibrium exchange rate is estimated using a new empirical approach,
where the internal and external balances are estimated simultaneously with the
real exchange rate, and their long-term values are used to compute the equilibrium
exchange rate. Macro-economic equilibrium conditions allow to detect misalignments
in the (effective) real exchange rates. These estimated misalignments are thereafter
used to derive nominal equilibrium exchange rates against the euro... |
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Everyone
Will Gain from Enlargement, Won’t They? |
Hedi Bchir
Lionel Fontagné
Paolo Zanghieri |
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April 2003
N° 222 |
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The
next enlargement will be an event of unprecedented political and institutional
importance for the European Union. The development gap between the present and
future members will also make this an original economic experiment. But trade
is already largely liberalised, as investors have anticipated membership. The
consequences of enlargement are therefore likely to have less to do with massive
competition in a few industries than complex changes in integrating markets... |
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Exchange
Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Run-up to EMU Membership |
Virginie Coudert
Cécile Couharde |
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December
2002
N° 2002-15 |
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The
real exchange rates of CEECs have been appreciating for the last decade, especially
when measured by consumer prices. We argue that the size of this appreciation
is linked to the exchange rate regime, the pegged currencies being more prone
to this phenomenon in the long run. We also show that this appreciation is not
necessarily linked to overvaluation. First, it is largely reduced when using a
proxy of tradable prices as deflator, according to the "Balassa-Samuelson
effect"... |
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Political
Economy of the Nice Treaty: Rebalancing the EU Council |
FFA |
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December
2001
N° 2001-12 |
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When
it was established in the 1950's, the European Community was based on a global
balance of power among member States. That initial vision of the founding fathers
of the European Union has been embodied in the weighted voting system of the EU
Council. Since its origin, this voting system has remained largely unchanged,
despite several enlargements. The scale of the member States' relative voting
weights in the EU-6 of 1957 is about the same as that of the EU-15 of 2000. For
several decades, voting rights of the large member States (France, Germany, Italy,
and the United-Kingdom) have been 5 times higher than that of Luxembourg, the
smallest member... |
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EU-Labour
Markets
Pension Reforms between Economic and Political Problems |
FFA |
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July
2001
N° 2001-05 |
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Eastern
enlargement will change the character of the European Union (EU). While the EU
was a club of rich economies at least from global perspectives throughout the
post-war period, it will face a distinct gap in per capita income levels among
its Members after accession of the ten candidate countries from Central and Eastern
Europe (CEE). Given the magnitude of income and wage differentials, there are
mounting concerns among the present EU Members that eastern enlargement may have
a number of undesirable effects on labour markets and income distribution... |
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Eastward
Enlargement of the European Union : Can Failure Be Avoided |
Jérôme Sgard |
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July-August
2000
N° 192 |
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The
start of membership negotiations with five new East European countries is a political
gesture made by the European Union. But a number of the countries concerned have
not completed their transition to a market economy successfully, or are incapable
of respecting the rules of the Single Market. How is it possible to avoid negotiations
running into the ground, or, alternatively, to avoid accession occurring before
these problems have been solved? European financial aid alone is not enough to
help support the renewal of transition. The Union will have to participate in
reinforcing the competencies and credibility of national institutions, whose weakness
has slowed-down or even blocked reform in the 1990s... |
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Reduction
of Working Time Eastward Enlargement of the European Union |
FFA |
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September
1999
N° 1999-13 |
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The
discussion was based on two presentations: "Reduction of Working Time: Does
it Decrease Unemployment?" by Axel Börsch-Supan (University of Mannheim,
CEPR and NBER). "The Eastward Enlargement of the European Union: a New Economy
for a United Europe" by Antoine-Tristan Mocilnikar (French Planning Agency,
Paris)... |
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Structural
Funds and Regional Disparities in Europe |
Philippine
Cour
Laurence Nayman |
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March 1999
N° 177 |
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The reform of the Structural Funds, aimed at favouring the catch-up of Europe's
poorer regions, is a major issue for the Union. At the same time, Europe is preparing
for enlargement, which will increase regional disparities, while the Union's net
contributor countries are seeking to reduce their financial transfers to Europe.
An examination of the trends in national and regional disparities shows that while
income differentials between countries have been reduced, such is not the case
for regional disparities. The reason for this is to be found in the rising wealth
of Europe's richest regions, and it leads to questions concerning the optimal
allocation of structural funds... |
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