| The demographic characteristics and disparities
of pension schemes will lead to strongly contrasting trends in the supply and
demand for capital across the various regions of the world, in this century. Capital
transfers, which a priori are mutually beneficial, should be possible, thanks
to financial globalisation. However, simulations carried out with the INGENUE
model indicate that the scale of such transfers may put Europe in a delicate financial
position, towards the middle of the century. The world outlook over the very long
term therefore sheds new light on the debate surrounding European pension schemes.
Two options are thus simulated: a postponement in the age of retirement or a partial
substitution of redistribution schemes in favour or capitalisation. Both reforms,
and especially the latter, would improve Europe's financial position. But capitalisation
implies significant sacrifices in terms of living standards. Later retirement,
along with the maintenance of full pension rights would seem to be preferable. |
Abstract |
