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N° 237 |
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| September 2004 |
| Turkey at the Crossroads |
Jérôme Sgard
Deniz Ünal |
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| At the beginning of October, the European
Commission puts forward its official position about opening up membership negotiations
between the European Union and Turkey. In December, the European Council will
announce its decision. For months, the press and experts have been examining the
political dimension of membership, both at the domestic and at the regional level.
Similarly, the consequences of Turkish membership for Europe’s institutions
and economy have been much discussed. This article looks at the Turkish economy,
as the choice to be made places Turkey at a decisive crossroads. The opening up
of negotiations will extend the remarkable stabilisation process which has taken
hold since the customs union treaty of 1996, and which has accelerated since 2002.
Negotiations will contribute to defining a new growth model, based on a dynamic
manufacturing sector, but which will draw in more foreign direct investment and
facilitate technological transfers. From this point of view, European membership
and the adoption of the Union’s acquis may be seen as an instrument for
both modernising Turkey’s institutional framework and accelerating its economic
transformation. Nevertheless, the risks associated with such a strategy, in a
country that remains relatively poor, need to be assessed. |
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