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N° 291 |
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| September 14, 2009 |
| Is Trade the Victim of Globalisation? |
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Yvan Decreux
Lionel Fontagné
David Khoudour-Castéras |
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| The brutal drop in global trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first months of 2009 has been the subject
of much discussion. Some have seen this fall-off, which was considerably steeper than the accompanying decline in
production, as a reversal of previous trends. The international fragmentation of supply chains is believed to have sped
up the growth of trade during recent years and subsequently led to the current downturn. The globalisation process is
thus being held responsible for the collapse of trade. We will show, based on a simulation carried out using the MIRAGE
model, that the intensity of trade of intermediate goods on a global scale is not a factor behind the overreaction of
trade to the shock suffered by business. This overreaction can instead be explained by short-term factors unique to the
crisis that began in the financial sector. |
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