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| N°18 |
| Winter 2002-2003 |
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| Market Access: the Objectives after Doha |
Lionel Fontagné
Jean-Louis Guérin
Sébastien Jean |
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Improved market access for agricultural and industrial goods could well constitute the main area of progress for the new trade round. Four scenarios for the reduction of the tariff equivalent of ad valorem duties, specific duties, tariff quotas, prohibitions, and anti-dumping duties are built here at the level of 5,000 products, using the MAcMaps database. The Baseline Scenario (A) assumes a uniform 35% reduction in the initial level of protection, spread over six years for industrial countries and ten years for developing countries. Tariff peaks (defined here as above 15% for industrial products, and over 85% for agricultural products) are assumed to remain unchanged in Scenario B, while they are evened out in Scenario C using the so-called Swiss formula, meaning that the tariff cut is proportionally higher, the higher the initial tariff level. Another scenario (D) of evening out is considered, whereby developing countries carry out more limited tariff cuts (20% for non-peak products, and a correspondingly higher coefficient for the Swiss formula). Each scenario also assumes the removal of nuisance tariffs (less than 2%).
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