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N° 2004-18 |
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| November 2004 |
| Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalization:
The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round |
Antoine Bouët
Jean-Christophe Bureau
Yvan Decreux
Sébastien Jean |
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| An applied general equilibrium model is used
to assess the impact of multilateral trade liberalization in agriculture, with
particular emphasis on developing countries. We use original data, and the model
includes some specific features such as a dual labor market. Applied tariffs,
including those under preferential regimes and regional agreements, are taken
into account at the detailed product level, together with the corresponding bound
tariffs on which countries negotiate. The various types of farm support are detailed,
and several groups of developing countries are distinguished. Simulations give
a contrasted picture of the benefits developing countries would draw from the
Doha development round. The results suggest that previous studies that have neglected
preferential agreements and the binding overhang (in tariffs as well as domestic
support), and have treated developed countries with a high level of aggregation
have been excessively optimistic about the actual benefits of multilateral trade
liberalization. Regions like sub-Saharan Africa are more likely to suffer from
the erosion of existing preferences. The main gainers of the Doha round are likely
to be developed countries and Cairns group members. |
Abstract |
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| CGE model; Doha Round; agriculture; tariff
preferences; domestic support; Foreign Direct Investment |
Keywords |
| F12, F13, D58, Q17 |
JEL classification |
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