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N° 2006-10 |
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| May 2006 |
| A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda |
Yvan Decreux
Lionel Fontagné |
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Different options contemplated by the negotiators of the Doha Development Agenda are
assessed using the Computable General Equilibrium model MIRAGE, the MAcMap and
GTAP databases, existing estimates of protection in the services sector as well as estimates
of the administrative and transaction costs to be reduced by trade facilitation measures.
In all scenarios (with the exception of “free trade”), we consider that the “G90” will not be
requested to liberalise. Export subsidies in agriculture are completely eliminated, taking
into account the 2013 deadline agreed in Hong Kong in December 2005, and domestic farm
support is halved.
When an average 36% linear cut in tariffs is implemented in the industrial and in the
agricultural sectors (but with a reduction limited to 25% for sensitive products in the latter
sector), we end up with a “Round for nothing”. At the opposite of the spectrum, free trade
in goods would lead to USD 232 bn welfare gains for the world economy (expressed in
2005 terms). There is however more to be gained, for the world economy, from a 25% cut
of the barriers in services, than from a 70% tariff cut in agriculture in the North and a 50%
cut in the South. On the top of this, a successful trade facilitation agenda would be
equivalent to doubling official development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa countries after 2020.
In the latter case, how to finance such program remains however a challenging issue. |
Abstract |
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| Trade negotiations; computable general equilibrium models; WTO |
Keywords |
| D58; F12; F13 |
JEL classification |
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