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N° 2007-23 |
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| December 2007 |
| Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions |
Vladimir Borgy
Xavier Chojnicki |
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| In this paper, we assess the demographic and economic consequences of migrations in Europe and neighborhood countries. In order to do so, we rely on a multi-region world overlapping
generations model (INGENUE2). The rich modeling framework of this multi-regions model
allows us to put into connection migration with the "triangular" relationship between population
aging, pension reforms and international capital markets. With this model, we are also
able to quantify the demographic and economic consequences of migration flows on both the
regions receiving and losing migrants. Our analysis is based on a very detailed migration
scenario between Western Europe and the Neighborhood regions constructed by taking into
account both the current situation and some prospective empirical scenarios. Our quantitative
results shed some light on the long term consequences of migration on regions that are not
at the same stage in the ageing process. Concerning the regions receiving migrants, despite
some improvement of their public pension system, it appears that a realistic migration scenario
does not offset the effect of ageing in these regions, leaving room for pension reforms.
Concerning the regions losing migrants, the adverse economic consequences of emigration
appear to be all the more important than the region is advanced in the ageing process (and is
already suffering from a declining population). |
Non-technical summary  |
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Résumé
non-technique
en français |
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| Full text |
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| CGEM; migration; international capital flows; neighborhood policy |
Keywords |
| F21; C68; J61; H55 |
JEL classification |
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