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N° 2009-20 |
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| September 2009 |
| Is Russia Sick with the Dutch Disease? |
Victoria Dobrynskaya
Edouard Turkish |
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| Despite impressive economic growth between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may
suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may
experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. We study whether
there are symptoms of the Dutch disease in Russia. Using Rosstat and CHELEM databases,
we analyse the trends in production, wages and employment in the Russian manufacturing
industries, and we study the behaviour of Russian imports and exports. We find that, while
Russia exhibited some symptoms of the Dutch disease, e.g. a real appreciation of the rouble, a
rise in real wages, a decrease in employment in manufacturing industries and the development
of the services sector, manufacturing production nonetheless increased, contradicting the theory of the Dutch disease. These trends can be explained by the gains in productivity and
the recovery after the disorganisation in the 1990s, by new market opportunities for Russian
products in the European Union and in CIS countries, by a growing Chinese demand for some
products and by a booming internal market. Finally, investments in many manufacturing
industries were largely encouraged, whereas those in the energy sector were strongly
regulated, which contributed to economic diversification. |
Non-technical summary  |
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Résumé
non-technique
en français |
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| Full text |
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| Russia; Dutch disease; competitiveness; monetary policy |
Keywords |
| E23; E58; F43; P24 |
JEL classification |
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