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N° 2010-05 |
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| March 2010 |
Fiscal Expectations on the Stability and Growth Pact:
Evidence from Survey Data |
Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
Jan-Christoph Rülke |
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| The paper uses survey data to analyze whether the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has changed financial
market’s expectations on government budget deficits in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. Our findings
indicate that accuracy of financial experts’ deficit forecasts has increased in France during the SGP. The
Pact seems to have also promoted a gain in credibility of European Commission’s deficit forecasts in
France, Italy, and in the UK, particularly after its reform in 2005 and up to December 2007. Nevertheless,
the National Fiscal Authorities’ forecasts of France, Germany, and Italy seem to have not been credible
among market experts during the SGP. These results suggest that additional measures could be taken in
order to make the fiscal rules of the Pact more credible among market specialists. |
Non-technical summary  |
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Résumé
non-technique
en français |
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| Full text |
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| Expectations; credibility; stability and growth pact; survey data |
Keywords |
| E62; H11; H30; H50 |
JEL classification |
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