https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/theme.asp?idTheme=5https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/img/blog_logo.pnghttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/theme.asp?idTheme=5Le Blog du CEPIIcepiiweb@cepii.fr (CEPII)frCEPIICEPIIhttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1183Mon, 23 Mar 2026 10:35:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1183https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1183 Nathan Chevalier, Matthieu Crozet, Charlotte Emlinger, Daniel Mirza

]]>The markedly negative tone of relations with Russia has eased for the American and Chinese superpowers, according to the geopolitical climate indicator “Shade."

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1177Mon, 9 Mar 2026 08:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1177https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1177 Anthony Edo, Jérôme Valette

]]>Within the ten main host countries of the European Union (EU), non-European immigrants (born outside the EU) face notable difficulties in economic integration. With comparable socio-economic characteristics, their employment rate is on average 11 percentage points lower than that of native-born individuals.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1169Thu, 5 Feb 2026 16:07:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1169https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1169 Houssein Guimbard

]]>Tariffs are at the core of the trade agreement concluded between the European Union (EU) and India at the end of January. The agreement offers European exporters a tangible opportunity to strengthen their presence in this vast market.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1158Tue, 13 Jan 2026 14:10:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1158https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1158 Mathieu Couttenier, Julian Marcoux, Thierry Mayer, Mathias Thoening

]]>Many analyses of armed conflicts fail to take into account the spatial origins of combatant groups, as well as the competition among them on predation markets that underlies the diffusion of violence.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1142Fri, 28 Nov 2025 15:52:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1142https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1142 Charlotte Emlinger, Kevin Lefebvre, Vincent Vicard

]]>In response to the sharp increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing is redirecting part of its export flows toward new markets. For certain products, the European Union (EU) has emerged as a preferred destination.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1131Fri, 14 Nov 2025 16:03:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1131https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1131 Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz Ünal

]]>Behind the expansion or slowdown of world trade in value terms lies a key factor: price movements, which are often sharply contrasted across categories of traded goods.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1122Wed, 5 Nov 2025 14:43:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1122https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1122 Laurence Nayman, Vincent Vicard

]]>Despite its clear net debtor position, France receives more investment income than it pays out — a form of “exorbitant privilege” long associated with the United States.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1117Fri, 17 Oct 2025 14:23:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1117https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1117 Camilo Umana Dajud, Vincent Vicard, Constance Marette

]]>Multinational enterprises (MNEs) have proven being more resilient in terms of employment than purely domestic groups since the health crisis, especially in their home country.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1100Mon, 4 Aug 2025 12:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1100https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1100 Deniz Ünal

]]>American protectionism constitutes an additional shock likely to reinforce trade within the Single Market.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1098Thu, 17 Jul 2025 00:01:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1098https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1098 Antoine Bouët, Houssein Guimbard

]]>Regardless of future US decisions, a return to the preexisting global trade order seems unlikely: trade with the United States is bound to become more expensive and more difficult.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1096Tue, 1 Jul 2025 08:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1096https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1096 Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Houssein Guimbard, Pauline Wibaux, Yu Zheng

]]>How can Europe identify the threat of trade retaliation that allows it to establish the strongest negotiating position in dealing with the United States in merchandise trade alone?

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1091Mon, 19 May 2025 08:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1091https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1091 Charlotte Emlinger, Kevin Lefebvre

]]>The trade sanctions imposed on the Russian economy not only restrict its supplies but also increase their cost.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1056Wed, 15 Jan 2025 00:04:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1056https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1056 Antoine Bouët, Leysa Maty Sall, Yu Zheng

]]>The tariff increases announced by Donald Trump before his election would have a serious impact on global trade flows.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1015Fri, 12 Jan 2024 13:46:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1015https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1015 Antoine Bouët

]]>The CEPII is looking forward to the new year and the developments it will bring that we hope to be positive. The Government, under whose auspices the CEPII has been operating since 1978, has initiated a thorough review of how to enhance the performance and coordination of the French organisations that conduct economic analysis and policy evaluation.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=966Wed, 22 Feb 2023 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=966https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=966 Antoine Bouët, Christophe Destais, Lionel Fontagné, Thomas Grjebine, Vincent Vicard

]]>This year, the major topics of the CEPII's work programme emerge from the current gloomy context: the energy transition, the resilience of value chains, impacts of geopolitical tensions, the macroeconomic situation marked by new budgetary priorities and the tightening of monetary policies.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=831Mon, 6 Jul 2020 16:55:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=831https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=831 Anne-Laure Delatte

]]>French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel might well hold the future of Europe in their hands. Or maybe more accurately in their cheque books. Round table with Anne-Laure Delatte, Lorenzo Marsili, Daniel Stelter, and Olaf Wientzek, on France 24 on 30 june 2020.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=796Tue, 21 Apr 2020 18:29:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=796https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=796 Aymeric Ortmans, Fabien Tripier

]]>The economic costs of the Covid-19 crisis will crucially depend on the evolution of financial and economic uncertainty. This blog presents a dashboard to track uncertainty in the US economy and compare the ongoing crisis to the 1987 and 2008 financial crises. Updated from March 26 post.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=685Mon, 13 May 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=685https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=685 Michel Fouquin, Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière

]]>China's international expansion follows multiple paths: trade, investment, finance and currency, to focus on the economy. In doing so, it pursues different objectives. The new roads project appears to be the way to provide a flexible framework for China's overall strategy. However, we can question its feasibility.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=683Mon, 29 Apr 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=683https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=683 Michel Fouquin, Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière

]]>A review of China's international activity since 2013 is striking first of all by the speed with which it has made China a major player in globalization in terms of both direct investment and lending to developing countries. The Silk Roads project, which is a unique and unconventional project, appears above all as a means of gradually structuring the Chinese vision of globalization, which combines China's long-term economic and strategic interest.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=675Mon, 1 Apr 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=675https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=675 Michel Fouquin, Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière

]]>Initially Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) focussed on transport infrastructure and pipelines on the one hand and Europe-Asia connectivity on the other hand. It aims at building an Eurasian Belt as well as several corridors leading to maritime roads.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=673Mon, 18 Mar 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=673https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=673 Michel Fouquin, Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière

]]>For more than thirty years, China has recorded exceptional trade surpluses and accumulated extraordinary financial reserves, which are almost twice those of its immediate follower Japan. These surpluses are an inconvenience to its most important partners, such as the United States and the European Union.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=645Mon, 14 Jan 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=645https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=645 Erica Perego

]]>Stocks and sovereign bonds are among the most used financial products and the correlation between stock and bond returns corresponds to a typically time-varying pattern reflecting changes in investors' decisions.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=623Mon, 29 Oct 2018 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=623https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=623 Anne-Laure Delatte

]]>The agenda to fix the euro is hampered by conflicting national interests. Creditor countries demand fiscal house cleaning and debtor countries ask for risk sharing. There is currently a political deadlock about how the adjustment burden should be distributed, perpetuating a state of vulnerability that is not in the collective interest of euro area members. This column, part of the Vox debate on euro area reform, argues that overcoming this coordination failure requires reforming the political governance of the EU, rather than just its economic governance. This post has been first published on VoxEU.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=585Fri, 2 Feb 2018 12:32:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=585https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=585 Cecilia Bellora, Jean Fouré

]]>Despite President Trump’s announcement to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, several States committed to uphold the US objectives of the Agreement within their borders.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=584Wed, 31 Jan 2018 16:38:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=584https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=584 Sébastien Jean, Ariell Reshef

]]>On January 22, President Trump announced his decision to apply tariffs on imported washing machines and photovoltaic cells and modules, and other protectionist measures could follow. To understand what the impacts of such measures could be, we review an earlier episode, the steel safeguards imposed by George W. Bush in 2002.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=502Mon, 20 Feb 2017 16:27:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=502https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=502 Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Orefice

]]>Regulation is a barrier to trade. A recent CEPII Working Paper uses French firm-level panel data to assess how technical barriers to trade impact firms’ exports.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=501Fri, 3 Feb 2017 11:55:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=501https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=501 Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Santoni

]]>The US President has a problem with the American geography – a problem called Mexico.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=500Wed, 25 Jan 2017 17:40:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=500https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=500 Fabien Tripier, Stéphane Lhuissier

]]>The election of Donald Trump has generated a climate of uncertainty about U.S. economic policy that will be implemented in the near future. How much should we worry about this “Trumpian uncertainty”?

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=485Mon, 24 Oct 2016 11:47:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=485https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=485 Christophe Destais

]]>The recent G20 Hangzhou Summit is yet another example of the difficulties the G20 has to move ahead at cruising speed. Changes in the G20 process might help to increase its impact.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=458Tue, 9 Feb 2016 11:43:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=458https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=458 Christophe Destais

]]>The shift from the concept of an “international monetary system” to that of “global financial safety nets” is positive but, still, limited mostly to emergency liquidity assistance. The broader notion of an “international financial public order” including crisis prevention would be more suitable.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=396Fri, 18 Sep 2015 16:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=396https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=396 Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier

]]>Once again, the Federal Reserve has postponed the date of exit from the zero lower bound. We show that the pace of the tightening cycle matters more than the exact timing of the first interest rate hike for the macroeconomy.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=385Tue, 30 Jun 2015 17:20:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=385https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=385 Christophe Destais

]]>Back in 2010, the Eurozone countries insisted a lot that the IMF provides exceptional financing to Greece. They will be duly reminded when the reckoning moment has come.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=382Fri, 29 May 2015 10:57:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=382https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=382 Sophie Piton

]]>From May 21 to May 23, the ECB organized its 2nd annual forum on Central banking. Mario Draghi's inaugural speech, as well as discussions on May 23rd, focused mainly on the need for structural reforms to strengthen growth in Europe.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=359Sat, 24 Jan 2015 12:54:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=359https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=359 Stéphane Lhuissier

]]>The ECB has announced that it will launch in March its first round of quantitative easing. The announcement contains some good and bad surprises: the size of the ECB's plan is gigantic, while the Central Bank was unclear about the Greek issue. How was this announcement perceived by markets?

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=353Sun, 21 Dec 2014 09:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=353https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=353 Natacha Valla

]]>The long awaited Juncker Plan for investment in Europe has arrived a few weeks ago. Beyond the creation of a Strategic Fund, the Plan as a whole has disappointed: not adamant enough to eliminate the deep obstacles to cross-border investment, and opaque in generating the “List” of projects to be financed. Yet, even imperfectly, Europe has now done its homework.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=347Thu, 4 Dec 2014 10:24:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=347https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=347 Urszula Szczerbowicz

]]>The ECB has confirmed its determination to counter the risk of deflation in the eurozone by evoking the possibility of sovereign bond purchases, but is confronted once again with the heterogeneity of the area. The need for compromise could jeopardize the effectiveness of its action.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=325Wed, 30 Jul 2014 12:01:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=325https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=325 Natacha Valla

]]>Some five years after the severe recession of 2009, private sector investment in Europe is still dangerously sluggish. And public investment has been cut further, reinforcing a long term downward trend. At a mere 2% of GDP, it has halved over thirty years.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=315Thu, 12 Jun 2014 13:29:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=315https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=315 Michel Aglietta, Guo Bai

]]>CEPII launches its third Policy Brief: “China’s Roadmap to Harmonious Society. Third Plenum Decisions on ‘major issues concerning comprehensively deepening reforms’.”

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=279Wed, 12 Feb 2014 14:07:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=279https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=279 Natacha Valla

]]>Strikingly, the debate about the Feb 7 ruling of the German Constitutional Court against the ECB’s flagship OMT programme has gone almost unnoticed in France. This is wrong. The French should care about it.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=260Wed, 27 Nov 2013 15:28:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=260https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=260 Urszula Szczerbowicz

]]>For a long time considered as impossible to implement, the negative interest rates on deposits of commercial banks at the central bank is now often mentioned as an option for the European Central Bank (ECB).

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=249Tue, 8 Oct 2013 10:44:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=249https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=249 Sébastien Jean

]]>The special and differential treatment granted to developing countries, a key principle in the multilateral trading system, now appears broken-down. Based on a speech given at the WTO Forum, this post reviews -with a focus on agriculture- why this is so and what could be done.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=246Mon, 23 Sep 2013 16:48:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=246https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=246 Lionel Fontagné, Julien Gourdon, Sébastien Jean

]]>CEPII launches its first Policy Brief “Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?” which examines the stakes and potential impacts of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=163Mon, 19 Nov 2012 11:20:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=163https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=163 Urszula Szczerbowicz

]]>Restoring the smooth functioning of the interbank markets was a key objective for Mario Draghi when he became president of the ECB. One year and two LTROs later, the ECB reached its target.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=162Wed, 14 Nov 2012 10:49:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=162https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=162 Laurence Nayman, Sophie Piton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

]]>In December 2011, the ‘six pack’ introduced a new surveillance procedure of macroeconomic imbalances at the European level. However, the ten indicators used for the early warning of imbalances do not seem much more relevant than the simple indicator of the current account balance.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=96Tue, 5 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=96https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=96 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

]]>The Eurozone is facing three intertwined and mutually reinforcing crises: a sovereign debt glut, banks’ financial fragility and dampened growth prospects. Further fiscal and political integration seems to be the only way to address these issues.

]]>