https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/theme.asp?idTheme=7https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/img/blog_logo.pnghttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/theme.asp?idTheme=7Le Blog du CEPIIcepiiweb@cepii.fr (CEPII)frCEPIICEPIIhttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1198Tue, 12 May 2026 13:43:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1198https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1198 Thierry Mayer, Isabelle Méjean, Mathias Thoening

]]>The growing dependence of the United States on Chinese goods has increased the economic cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the U.S. economy. The United States therefore faces a fundamental security dilemma: while decoupling may strengthen its diplomatic bargaining power, it may also fuel a costly escalation of tensions.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1188Thu, 9 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1188https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1188 Matteo Neri-Lainé

]]>Beyond national security issues, military alliances play an essential role in securing international trade. Their redefinition could lead to a major reorientation of global flows.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1183Mon, 23 Mar 2026 10:35:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1183https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1183 Nathan Chevalier, Matthieu Crozet, Charlotte Emlinger, Daniel Mirza

]]>The markedly negative tone of relations with Russia has eased for the American and Chinese superpowers, according to the geopolitical climate indicator “Shade."

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1169Thu, 5 Feb 2026 16:07:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1169https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1169 Houssein Guimbard

]]>Tariffs are at the core of the trade agreement concluded between the European Union (EU) and India at the end of January. The agreement offers European exporters a tangible opportunity to strengthen their presence in this vast market.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1150Thu, 18 Dec 2025 14:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1150https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1150 Amandine Aubry, Anthony Edo

]]>A sector’s export performance depends not only on the immigrant labour it employs directly, but also on immigrant workers employed in upstream sectors.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1142Fri, 28 Nov 2025 15:52:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1142https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1142 Charlotte Emlinger, Kevin Lefebvre, Vincent Vicard

]]>In response to the sharp increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing is redirecting part of its export flows toward new markets. For certain products, the European Union (EU) has emerged as a preferred destination.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1131Fri, 14 Nov 2025 16:03:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1131https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1131 Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz Ünal

]]>Behind the expansion or slowdown of world trade in value terms lies a key factor: price movements, which are often sharply contrasted across categories of traded goods.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1122Wed, 5 Nov 2025 14:43:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1122https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1122 Laurence Nayman, Vincent Vicard

]]>Despite its clear net debtor position, France receives more investment income than it pays out — a form of “exorbitant privilege” long associated with the United States.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1117Fri, 17 Oct 2025 14:23:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1117https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1117 Camilo Umana Dajud, Vincent Vicard, Constance Marette

]]>Multinational enterprises (MNEs) have proven being more resilient in terms of employment than purely domestic groups since the health crisis, especially in their home country.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1101Mon, 1 Sep 2025 15:08:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1101https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1101 Charlotte Emlinger, Houssein Guimbard

]]>In discussions surrounding international trade agreements, European agriculture is often portrayed as a homogeneous sector, unable to compete on the global stage. This oversimplified perception fuels ongoing debates over market liberalization, foreign competition, and the safeguarding of domestic industries.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1095Mon, 16 Jun 2025 08:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1095https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1095 Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon

]]>Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies has been one of the defining trends of recent decades. The adoption of a fixed exchange regime by low-productivity countries particularly accelerates this phenomenon.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1093Mon, 2 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1093https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1093 Pierre Cotterlaz

]]>The importance of China in the imports of European countries varies significantly from one source to another, because of methodological differences in recording the country of origin of imports.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1089Mon, 5 May 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1089https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1089 Kevin Lefebvre, Pauline Wibaux

]]>The tariff strategy implemented since Donald Trump's inauguration has drawn attention to the extent of the U.S. economy's dependence on imports. The European Union (EU) ranks second among the suppliers on which the United States relies the most.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1084Mon, 14 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1084https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1084 Pierre Cotterlaz

]]>The United States are the main destination of European Union (EU) exports (excluding the Single Market). As transatlantic trade tensions intensify, some European industries are particularly exposed to the risk of losing access to the U.S. market.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1083Tue, 8 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1083https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1083 Antoine Bouët, Houssein Guimbard

]]>Since taking office, Donald Trump has fully embraced his 'tariff mania,' imposing higher taxes on certain countries and products, even going so far as to introduce reciprocal tariffs. This has led to a wide range of import duties on the U.S. market.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1074Wed, 19 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1074https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1074 Houssein Guimbard

]]>On average, the United States and the European Union (EU) apply relatively low tariffs. How do the levels vary by industry group ?

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1069Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1069https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1069 Gianluca Santoni, Vincent Vicard

]]>China dominates global trade with 730 products for which it accounts for more than half of global exports in 2023, far more than the EU, the United States, and Japan.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1061Wed, 26 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1061https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1061 Romain Capliez, Carl Grekou, Emmanuelle Hache, Valérie Mignon

]]>China, in addition to being one of the leading producers of minerals used in electric vehicle batteries, has also become the largest importer, thanks to its massive investments worldwide.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1064Wed, 12 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1064https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1064 Thierry Mayer, Vincent Vicard, Pauline Wibaux

]]>The automotive sector plays a central role in Donald Trump's declarations on trade deficits and his threats of protectionist measures against the European Union (EU) as well as Canada and Mexico. With a $270 billion motor vehicle trade deficit in 2023, cars are one of the major items, nearly a quarter of the total, in the US trade deficit after consumer goods.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1060Wed, 12 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1060https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1060 Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz Ünal

]]>The boom in international trade in healthcare products does not date back to the Covid-19 pandemic but to the great multilateral trade opening of the 2000s. Will the protectionist tensions that have been building since 2022 slow this growth?

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1055Thu, 30 Jan 2025 00:06:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1055https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=1055 Kevin Lefebvre, Pauline Wibaux

]]>The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have highlighted the challenges associated with import dependency.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=717Tue, 2 Jul 2019 14:53:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=717https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=717 Sébastien Jean, Anne Perrot, Thomas Philippon

]]>Europe’s competition policy has successfully contained the rise in concentration and excess profits, and the EU should not follow the US in weakening its approach. Instead, the EU needs to strengthen its trade policy to be more assertive on reciprocity in market access and control of industrial subsidies.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=694Tue, 23 Apr 2019 14:27:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=694https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=694 Cecilia Bellora, Lionel Fontagné

]]>Since 2018, the US administration has implemented several measures limiting free trade with China and other countries. Using cross-country data and a general equilibrium model, this column argues that a trade war hurts not only the targeted countries but also the country imposing the tariffs. Column first published in VOX.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=634Fri, 16 Nov 2018 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=634https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=634 Sébastien Jean

]]>The world trading system is facing an existential crisis. This calls for a significant update of the rulebook, dealing with dissatisfactions regarding negotiation and rules, surveillance, as well as adjudication.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=517Tue, 27 Jun 2017 10:30:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=517https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=517 Camilo Umana Dajud

]]>The sharp drop in commodity prices has had a sizeable impact on Latin America's short term growth prospects. The decline in terms of trade has also revealed, once again, the low productivity of the region's economies. Investing in infrastructure could help Latin America simultaneously address these short and long term challenges.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=512Thu, 11 May 2017 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=512https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=512 Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Orefice, Philippe Martin

]]>With Brexit and the election of D. Trump, tariffs and exchange rates are back at the centre stage of policy debates. This column revisits the assumptions economists make when estimating how tariffs and exchange rates affect exporters’ performance.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=489Fri, 2 Dec 2016 11:44:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=489https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=489 Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Santoni

]]>A key driver of productivity is ease of resource allocation. This column uses firm-level data for France to show that misallocation has a spatial dimension: resource allocation and the associated effect on productivity are related not only to firms’ characteristics, but also to the environment in which they operate. Denser commuting zones seem to offer a better match between employers and employees, leading to more productive firms.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=475Fri, 19 Aug 2016 15:27:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=475https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=475 Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier

]]>IMF cuts global growth forecasts following Brexit vote. Paul Krugman has taken a different point of view by arguing there is no reason to worry in the immediate future. This opposition reflects clearly two different opinions on the short-term consequences of uncertainty.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=444Thu, 10 Dec 2015 11:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=444https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=444 Stéphane Lhuissier

]]>This column reports the nature and the amplitude of economic cycles in the Euro area since 1970, with a focus on the role of financial factors in generating these cycles.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=375Thu, 30 Apr 2015 17:27:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=375https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=375 Stéphane Lhuissier

]]>Following the largest financial shock since the Great Depression, modern industrial countries appear to be coming back to a moderate growth trajectory, as was the case for the last three decades.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=372Wed, 22 Apr 2015 09:21:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=372https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=372 Sébastien Jean

]]>While European external surpluses are accumulating and domestic demand is slacking, insisting on improving the Union’s external competitiveness, as some in the Commission are presently doing, is paradoxical. For Europe, the paramount risk is not losing its competitiveness. It is not recovering cohesion and growth.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=238Tue, 10 Sep 2013 08:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=238https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=238 Christophe Destais

]]>The current turmoil in emerging capital markets is the result of a classical reversal of market sentiment after an excess of optimism. There are good reasons for being cautiously optimistic but uncertainties remain.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=153Mon, 15 Oct 2012 08:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=153https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=153 Maria Bas, Vanessa Strauss-Khan

]]>International trade plays a key role in technological diffusion. In a recent work, we show how firms can improve their competitiveness and export performance through importing more varieties of high quality or lower cost intermediate goods.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=121Tue, 7 Aug 2012 15:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=121https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=121 Sophie Piton, Yves-Emmanuel Bara

]]>The Lettre du CEPII No. 324 shows that internal devaluation strategies in Latvia and in Ireland produced only limited adjustments at the price of considerable social costs.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=82Mon, 23 Apr 2012 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=82https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=82 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Lionel Fontagné, Jean Fouré

]]>In a previous post, the CEPII presented its World Growth Projections to 2050. This article focuses on two themes that were not addressed yet: Education and Female Participation to the Labor Force.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=80Thu, 19 Apr 2012 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=80https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=80 Cristina Mitaritonna, Matthieu Crozet

]]>In France, like in most Western European countries, the debate on competitiveness is entirely focused on manufacturing industries. The case of services sectors remains in the shadows, even though they undoubtedly are an important source of employment and constitute a clear comparative advantage.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=51Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=51https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=51 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Lionel Fontagné, Jean Fouré

]]>The CEPII recently revisited its projections for the world economy in 2050. The great shift in economic power to the emerging countries seems to be accelerating. By 2050, China would represent one-third of the world economy, more than the European Union, the United States, India and Japan all together.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=38Mon, 19 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=38https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=38 Michel Fouquin

]]>Although economists have long stressed the limitations of using GDP to evaluate standards of living, the debate was recently reignited by the publication of the Stiglitz report. The CEPII has proposed to calculate an indicator for the year 2009 and 34 countries incorporating certain social data items in terms of income equivalents.

]]>https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=37Mon, 19 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=37https://www.cepii.fr/BLOG/en/post.asp?IDcommunique=37 Colette Herzog, Deniz Ünal

]]>The specialization of countries in international trade reveals their comparative advantages and disadvantages. The CHELEM database which provides complete and consistent statistics classified by country in the long term is used to analyze the structural aspect of the competitiveness of nations in all economic sectors, namely the primary sector, industry and services.

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