Trade & Globalization

The Redirection of Chinese Exports to Europe

Post, June 12, 2026
By Charlotte Emlinger, Kevin Lefebvre, Isabelle Méjean, Vincent Vicard

The closure of the U.S. market following Donald Trump’s return to office raises the prospect of a reorientation of Chinese exports toward the European Union. How significant could this shift be?

United States: The Security Paradox of Trade Decoupling from China

Post, May 12, 2026
By Thierry Mayer, Isabelle Méjean, Mathias Thoening

The growing dependence of the United States on Chinese goods has increased the economic cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the U.S. economy. The United States therefore faces a fundamental security dilemma: while decoupling may strengthen its diplomatic bargaining power, it may also fuel a costly escalation of tensions.

Military Alliances: A Major Commercial Stake

Post, April 9, 2026
By Matteo Neri-Lainé

Beyond national security issues, military alliances play an essential role in securing international trade. Their redefinition could lead to a major reorientation of global flows.

Characterizing Geopolitical Relationships to Better Understand Trade

Post, March 23, 2026
By Nathan Chevalier, Matthieu Crozet, Charlotte Emlinger, Daniel Mirza

The markedly negative tone of relations with Russia has eased for the American and Chinese superpowers, according to the geopolitical climate indicator “Shade."

Indo-European Free Trade Agreement: New Market Opportunities for European Products

Post, February 5, 2026
By Houssein Guimbard

Tariffs are at the core of the trade agreement concluded between the European Union (EU) and India at the end of January. The agreement offers European exporters a tangible opportunity to strengthen their presence in this vast market.

Immigrant Employment in Intermediate Sectors Enhances Downstream Export Performance

Post, December 18, 2025
By Amandine Aubry, Anthony Edo

A sector’s export performance depends not only on the immigrant labour it employs directly, but also on immigrant workers employed in upstream sectors.

Low-Value Packages: An Illustration of China’s Export Reorientation Toward the EU

Post, November 28, 2025
By Charlotte Emlinger, Kevin Lefebvre, Vincent Vicard

In response to the sharp increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing is redirecting part of its export flows toward new markets. For certain products, the European Union (EU) has emerged as a preferred destination.

Dynamics of World Trade: A Question of Prices?

Post, November 14, 2025
By Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz Ünal

Behind the expansion or slowdown of world trade in value terms lies a key factor: price movements, which are often sharply contrasted across categories of traded goods.

France’s Exorbitant Privilege

Post, November 5, 2025
By Laurence Nayman, Vincent Vicard

Despite its clear net debtor position, France receives more investment income than it pays out — a form of “exorbitant privilege” long associated with the United States.

Multinational Enterprises Have Favored Employment in Their Domestic Affiliates since the Covid-19 Shock

Post, October 17, 2025
By Camilo Umana Dajud, Vincent Vicard, Constance Marette

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) have proven being more resilient in terms of employment than purely domestic groups since the health crisis, especially in their home country.

The impact of international trade on France's carbon footprint

Post, September 15, 2025
By Pierre Cotterlaz, Christophe Gouel

The geographical origin of France's imports played a decisive role in the increase of its carbon footprint during the 2000s. This trend is primarily explained by the "China shock" followed by the rise in the economy's openness rate.

European agri-food: sectoral contrasts in the face of trade liberalization

Post, September 1, 2025
By Charlotte Emlinger, Houssein Guimbard

In discussions surrounding international trade agreements, European agriculture is often portrayed as a homogeneous sector, unable to compete on the global stage. This oversimplified perception fuels ongoing debates over market liberalization, foreign competition, and the safeguarding of domestic industries.

Transatlantic Tariff Agreement: Toward a Further Intensification of Intra-European Trade?

Post, August 4, 2025
By Deniz Ünal

American protectionism constitutes an additional shock likely to reinforce trade within the Single Market.

Rise in American Protectionism: A Certainty Amid Trade Chaos

Post, July 17, 2025
By Antoine Bouët, Houssein Guimbard

Regardless of future US decisions, a return to the preexisting global trade order seems unlikely: trade with the United States is bound to become more expensive and more difficult.

Transatlantic Tariff Negotiation: "Positive versus Negative" List Strategy for the European Union

Post, July 1, 2025
By Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Houssein Guimbard, Pauline Wibaux, Yu Zheng

How can Europe identify the threat of trade retaliation that allows it to establish the strongest negotiating position in dealing with the United States in merchandise trade alone?

The fixed exchange rate regime exacerbates deindustrialization

Post, June 16, 2025
By Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon

Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies has been one of the defining trends of recent decades. The adoption of a fixed exchange regime by low-productivity countries particularly accelerates this phenomenon.

China's share in European countries’ imports: the source matters !

Post, June 2, 2025
By Pierre Cotterlaz

The importance of China in the imports of European countries varies significantly from one source to another, because of methodological differences in recording the country of origin of imports.

Sanctions: The Cost of Bypassing for Russia

Post, May 19, 2025
By Charlotte Emlinger, Kevin Lefebvre

The trade sanctions imposed on the Russian economy not only restrict its supplies but also increase their cost.

Bilateral Vulnerability to Imports Is Higher in the United States than in Europe

Post, May 5, 2025
By Kevin Lefebvre, Pauline Wibaux

The tariff strategy implemented since Donald Trump's inauguration has drawn attention to the extent of the U.S. economy's dependence on imports. The European Union (EU) ranks second among the suppliers on which the United States relies the most.

U.S. Tariff Hike: Uneven Effects Across Sectors

Post, April 14, 2025
By Pierre Cotterlaz

The United States are the main destination of European Union (EU) exports (excluding the Single Market). As transatlantic trade tensions intensify, some European industries are particularly exposed to the risk of losing access to the U.S. market.

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