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Emerging turbulences

Post, September 10, 2013
By Christophe Destais

The current turmoil in emerging capital markets is the result of a classical reversal of market sentiment after an excess of optimism. There are good reasons for being cautiously optimistic but uncertainties remain.

Is the Eurozone really a monetary union? (2/2)

Post, July 3, 2013
By Christophe Destais

In the United States, the regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs) are de facto subsidiaries of the central Federal Reserve Board. The claims and the debts between FRBs are settled through a transfer of assets which is actually a simple accounting arrangement.

Is the Eurozone really a monetary union? (1/2)

Post, July 1, 2013
By Christophe Destais

Central banks in the Eurozone have accumulated claims and debts between themselves. These "Target 2 imbalances" substituted for the outstanding between private entities, in particular for the interbank loans and there is no mechanism to settle them. Should the Eurozone burst, they would become due.

The banking union needs a guarantor of last resort

Post, June 17, 2013
By Christophe Destais

Governments act as guarantors of last resort of the financial system, as evidenced during the crises of the past 6 years. It will remain true in the future, even if a better regulation and the bailing in financial institutions by their creditors allow to better circumventing the risks born by the taxpayers.

Fast rising inequality in China: what can be done about it?

Post, May 15, 2013
By Guanghua Wan

As remarkable as its economic growth, China’s income distribution has been worsening since mid-1980s. Inequality across regions, occupations and between individual all rose dramatically. More importantly, it did so in a short time.

Challenges ahead for the next WTO DG

Post, May 2, 2013
By Sébastien Jean

The WTO is going through a leadership transition as after 8 years, the incumbent Director-General steps down on September 1, 2013. What are the challenges ahead for Pascal Lamy’s successor? The next DG will certainly have to take the Doha loss and move toward an updated multilateral trading system.

Round-tripping of Russian foreign investment via Cyprus

Post, March 18, 2013
By Olena Havrylchyk, Svetlana Ledyaeva

The design of the recent bailout package for Cyprus preserves the offshore banking status that is used by Russian depositors and round-trip investors. Is it worth it?

IMF Quota Formula Review: still a long way to go

Post, February 20, 2013
By Christophe Destais

On January 30, 2013, the IMF Executive Board issued a short report on the outcome of its discussion regarding the quota formula review. Judging from the extent of remaining disagreement, the objective of completing the review by 2013 is not met and there is still a long way to go.

Monetary policy in exceptional times

Post, January 31, 2013
By Urszula Szczerbowicz

The last 5 years have been a major challenge for the theory and practice of monetary policy. The key channel of conventional monetary policy has been severely impaired and the target policy rates in some countries have approached zero.

Sébastien Jean was appointed director of CEPII

Post, December 18, 2012
By CEPII

Par arrêté du Premier ministre en date du 18 décembre 2012, M. Sébastien JEAN est nommé directeur du Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationales.

Ending the euro area crisis: crossing the river by feeling the stones

Post, December 13, 2012
By Benjamin Carton, Christophe Destais, Sophie Piton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Yves-Emmanuel Bara

Europeans face a fourfold crisis: a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a competitiveness crisis and a crisis of governance. CEPII's first Policy Paper highlight the key issues that need to be addressed for a comprehensive solution to be found.

The interbank market one year after Mario Draghi presidency at the ECB

Post, November 19, 2012
By Urszula Szczerbowicz

Restoring the smooth functioning of the interbank markets was a key objective for Mario Draghi when he became president of the ECB. One year and two LTROs later, the ECB reached its target.

Six pack: the case for a simplified scoreboard

Post, November 14, 2012
By Laurence Nayman, Sophie Piton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

In December 2011, the ‘six pack’ introduced a new surveillance procedure of macroeconomic imbalances at the European level. However, the ten indicators used for the early warning of imbalances do not seem much more relevant than the simple indicator of the current account balance.

Importing intermediate goods to foster French firms’ productivity and exports

Post, October 15, 2012
By Maria Bas, Vanessa Strauss-Khan

International trade plays a key role in technological diffusion. In a recent work, we show how firms can improve their competitiveness and export performance through importing more varieties of high quality or lower cost intermediate goods.

Institutional reform and democracy in Georgia 9 years after the “Rose revolution”

Post, October 4, 2012
By Olena Havrylchyk

On October 2, Mikheil Saakashvili – who has led the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia in 2003 and has been president since 2004 – admitted defeat of his party in Georgia's parliamentary election against Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Financial development in India and firms’ growth

Facts & Figures, September 21, 2012
By Maria Bas, Antoine Berthou

The banking reforms that took place in India in the mid 90s have improved the availability of credit. However, the effects of financial development on firms’ growth appear to be unequal depending on their characteristics. Where are the gains from credit expansion concentrated?

Single bells: single market, single currency, single supervisor, single resolution mechanism

Post, September 14, 2012
By Olena Havrylchyk

On 12 of September, the European Commission (EC) has unveiled its proposal that shifts banking supervision to the European level, giving sweeping supervisory powers to the ECB.

Internal devaluation: nothing but sweat and tears?

Post, August 7, 2012
By Sophie Piton, Yves-Emmanuel Bara

The Lettre du CEPII No. 324 shows that internal devaluation strategies in Latvia and in Ireland produced only limited adjustments at the price of considerable social costs.

International migration and the new role of preferential trade agreements

Facts & Figures, July 17, 2012
By Gianluca Orefice

An international organization (uniquely) in charge of managing international migration flows is missing. However recent Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) include migration related provisions able to manage migration flows. Further, the signature of a PTA itself boosts bilateral migration flows.

The case for the ECB sovereign bonds purchases

Post, July 10, 2012
By Urszula Szczerbowicz

On Thursday July 5th the ECB decided to cut its main refinancing rate to 0.75%, for the first time crossing the historical low of 1%. More importantly, it reduced the overnight deposit facility rate to 0%. In doing so, the ECB encouraged banks to transform the liquidity received via two 3-year LTROs into credit to companies and households, instead of keeping it at the ECB deposit facility.

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