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Back to the Great Moderation?

Post, April 30, 2015
By Stéphane Lhuissier

Following the largest financial shock since the Great Depression, modern industrial countries appear to be coming back to a moderate growth trajectory, as was the case for the last three decades.

Regulatory coherence is more easily said than done

Post, April 23, 2015
By Sébastien Jean

Regulatory coherence is claimed to be the core of the potential economic stakes in the TTIP. As the 9th Round of Negotiations is being convened in New York City, time has come for discussions to take a more concrete form.

Europe is trapped by its competitiveness obsession

Post, April 22, 2015
By Sébastien Jean

While European external surpluses are accumulating and domestic demand is slacking, insisting on improving the Union’s external competitiveness, as some in the Commission are presently doing, is paradoxical. For Europe, the paramount risk is not losing its competitiveness. It is not recovering cohesion and growth.

QE - "European style": be bolder, but parsimonious!

Post, March 24, 2015
By Urszula Szczerbowicz, Natacha Valla

The ECB will purchase a monthly €60bn of private and public debt instruments between March 2015 and September 2016 – a total worth over €1 trillion. While the timing and size of purchases are known, there is more leeway than it seems in the way purchases are allocated to each category of assets.

Quantitative Easing: were markets surprised?

Post, January 24, 2015
By Stéphane Lhuissier

The ECB has announced that it will launch in March its first round of quantitative easing. The announcement contains some good and bad surprises: the size of the ECB's plan is gigantic, while the Central Bank was unclear about the Greek issue. How was this announcement perceived by markets?

ECB equity purchases: too risky, really?

Post, January 9, 2015
By Urszula Szczerbowicz, Natacha Valla

Instead of buying sovereign debt, the ECB could broaden further its purchases to include equity of all sorts. Fuelling an equity bubble is no worse than fuelling a bond one. It can be mitigated by intervening secretly and including non listed securities. Inhibitions to take risk should be lifted.

Best wishes for 2015 !

Post, December 23, 2014
By CEPII

Long live the Juncker Plan!

Post, December 21, 2014
By Natacha Valla

The long awaited Juncker Plan for investment in Europe has arrived a few weeks ago. Beyond the creation of a Strategic Fund, the Plan as a whole has disappointed: not adamant enough to eliminate the deep obstacles to cross-border investment, and opaque in generating the “List” of projects to be financed. Yet, even imperfectly, Europe has now done its homework.

Is China finally inhaling the smoke of international financial markets?

Post, December 16, 2014
By Christophe Destais

The recycling of current account and/or financial account surpluses through the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by emerging countries after the 1999-2001 crisis, particularly by China, has been described as “smoking but not inhaling in international financial markets”.

TTIP is about regulatory coherence

Post, December 8, 2014
By Lionel Fontagné, Sébastien Jean

The TTIP has become a full-blown political issue as the two largest economic entities in the world are negotiating a deep integration agreement, going beyond what has been done previously in any agreement except the EU’s Single Market.

Purchases of sovereign bonds: the ECB confronted with the heterogeneity of the Euro area

Post, December 4, 2014
By Urszula Szczerbowicz

The ECB has confirmed its determination to counter the risk of deflation in the eurozone by evoking the possibility of sovereign bond purchases, but is confronted once again with the heterogeneity of the area. The need for compromise could jeopardize the effectiveness of its action.

The delusion of State guarantees

Post, October 3, 2014
By Natacha Valla

European policymakers are currently busy addressing two issues: moribund investment and banks on extended sick leave. Some observers might be tempted to segregate these issues. While investment would be in the remit of States, the financial health of our economies would be under the responsibility of the ECB alone.

Reforming the European Investment Bank: a New Architecture for Public Investment in Europe

Post, July 30, 2014
By Natacha Valla

Some five years after the severe recession of 2009, private sector investment in Europe is still dangerously sluggish. And public investment has been cut further, reinforcing a long term downward trend. At a mere 2% of GDP, it has halved over thirty years.

China’s Roadmap to Harmonious Society

Post, June 12, 2014
By Michel Aglietta, Guo Bai

CEPII launches its third Policy Brief: “China’s Roadmap to Harmonious Society. Third Plenum Decisions on ‘major issues concerning comprehensively deepening reforms’.”

The euro area urgently needs a Federal Investment Fund (not a budget)

Post, April 9, 2014
By Natacha Valla

The decline in investment rates in the euro area following the global financial crisis has been sharp. And it looks as though it will not reverse significantly. Rebooting investment and channeling investable funds to the right places on the continent is therefore a major challenge for policy makers.

Euro area: deflation is the wrong debate

Post, March 6, 2014
By Natacha Valla

For a fact, measures of headline consumer price inflation have decelerated sharply over the recent past. At 0.8-1%; inflation hovers around levels that are clearly below the ECB’s flagship 2% medium-term objective.

The French should care about Karlsruhe

Post, February 12, 2014
By Natacha Valla

Strikingly, the debate about the Feb 7 ruling of the German Constitutional Court against the ECB’s flagship OMT programme has gone almost unnoticed in France. This is wrong. The French should care about it.

Swapmania

Post, December 9, 2013
By Christophe Destais

Currency swaps between central banks are quickly emerging as a key feature of the international monetary system.

Negative interest rate on bank deposits at the central bank: an option for the ECB?

Post, November 27, 2013
By Urszula Szczerbowicz

For a long time considered as impossible to implement, the negative interest rates on deposits of commercial banks at the central bank is now often mentioned as an option for the European Central Bank (ECB).

WTO: Rethinking the special and differential treatment granted to developing countries

Post, October 8, 2013
By Sébastien Jean

The special and differential treatment granted to developing countries, a key principle in the multilateral trading system, now appears broken-down. Based on a speech given at the WTO Forum, this post reviews -with a focus on agriculture- why this is so and what could be done.

Significant economic gains could be achieved through a transatlantic trade partnership

Post, September 23, 2013
By Lionel Fontagné, Julien Gourdon, Sébastien Jean

CEPII launches its first Policy Brief “Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?” which examines the stakes and potential impacts of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

Emerging turbulences

Post, September 10, 2013
By Christophe Destais

The current turmoil in emerging capital markets is the result of a classical reversal of market sentiment after an excess of optimism. There are good reasons for being cautiously optimistic but uncertainties remain.

Is the Eurozone really a monetary union? (2/2)

Post, July 3, 2013
By Christophe Destais

In the United States, the regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs) are de facto subsidiaries of the central Federal Reserve Board. The claims and the debts between FRBs are settled through a transfer of assets which is actually a simple accounting arrangement.

Is the Eurozone really a monetary union? (1/2)

Post, July 1, 2013
By Christophe Destais

Central banks in the Eurozone have accumulated claims and debts between themselves. These "Target 2 imbalances" substituted for the outstanding between private entities, in particular for the interbank loans and there is no mechanism to settle them. Should the Eurozone burst, they would become due.

The banking union needs a guarantor of last resort

Post, June 17, 2013
By Christophe Destais

Governments act as guarantors of last resort of the financial system, as evidenced during the crises of the past 6 years. It will remain true in the future, even if a better regulation and the bailing in financial institutions by their creditors allow to better circumventing the risks born by the taxpayers.

Fast rising inequality in China: what can be done about it?

Post, May 15, 2013
By Guanghua Wan

As remarkable as its economic growth, China’s income distribution has been worsening since mid-1980s. Inequality across regions, occupations and between individual all rose dramatically. More importantly, it did so in a short time.

Challenges ahead for the next WTO DG

Post, May 2, 2013
By Sébastien Jean

The WTO is going through a leadership transition as after 8 years, the incumbent Director-General steps down on September 1, 2013. What are the challenges ahead for Pascal Lamy’s successor? The next DG will certainly have to take the Doha loss and move toward an updated multilateral trading system.

Round-tripping of Russian foreign investment via Cyprus

Post, March 18, 2013
By Olena Havrylchyk, Svetlana Ledyaeva

The design of the recent bailout package for Cyprus preserves the offshore banking status that is used by Russian depositors and round-trip investors. Is it worth it?

IMF Quota Formula Review: still a long way to go

Post, February 20, 2013
By Christophe Destais

On January 30, 2013, the IMF Executive Board issued a short report on the outcome of its discussion regarding the quota formula review. Judging from the extent of remaining disagreement, the objective of completing the review by 2013 is not met and there is still a long way to go.

Monetary policy in exceptional times

Post, January 31, 2013
By Urszula Szczerbowicz

The last 5 years have been a major challenge for the theory and practice of monetary policy. The key channel of conventional monetary policy has been severely impaired and the target policy rates in some countries have approached zero.

Sébastien Jean was appointed director of CEPII

Post, December 18, 2012
By CEPII

Par arrêté du Premier ministre en date du 18 décembre 2012, M. Sébastien JEAN est nommé directeur du Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationales.

Ending the euro area crisis: crossing the river by feeling the stones

Post, December 13, 2012
By Benjamin Carton, Christophe Destais, Sophie Piton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Yves-Emmanuel Bara

Europeans face a fourfold crisis: a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a competitiveness crisis and a crisis of governance. CEPII's first Policy Paper highlight the key issues that need to be addressed for a comprehensive solution to be found.

The interbank market one year after Mario Draghi presidency at the ECB

Post, November 19, 2012
By Urszula Szczerbowicz

Restoring the smooth functioning of the interbank markets was a key objective for Mario Draghi when he became president of the ECB. One year and two LTROs later, the ECB reached its target.

Six pack: the case for a simplified scoreboard

Post, November 14, 2012
By Laurence Nayman, Sophie Piton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

In December 2011, the ‘six pack’ introduced a new surveillance procedure of macroeconomic imbalances at the European level. However, the ten indicators used for the early warning of imbalances do not seem much more relevant than the simple indicator of the current account balance.

Importing intermediate goods to foster French firms’ productivity and exports

Post, October 15, 2012
By Maria Bas, Vanessa Strauss-Khan

International trade plays a key role in technological diffusion. In a recent work, we show how firms can improve their competitiveness and export performance through importing more varieties of high quality or lower cost intermediate goods.

Institutional reform and democracy in Georgia 9 years after the “Rose revolution”

Post, October 4, 2012
By Olena Havrylchyk

On October 2, Mikheil Saakashvili – who has led the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia in 2003 and has been president since 2004 – admitted defeat of his party in Georgia's parliamentary election against Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Financial development in India and firms’ growth

Facts & Figures, September 21, 2012
By Maria Bas, Antoine Berthou

The banking reforms that took place in India in the mid 90s have improved the availability of credit. However, the effects of financial development on firms’ growth appear to be unequal depending on their characteristics. Where are the gains from credit expansion concentrated?

Single bells: single market, single currency, single supervisor, single resolution mechanism

Post, September 14, 2012
By Olena Havrylchyk

On 12 of September, the European Commission (EC) has unveiled its proposal that shifts banking supervision to the European level, giving sweeping supervisory powers to the ECB.

Internal devaluation: nothing but sweat and tears?

Post, August 7, 2012
By Sophie Piton, Yves-Emmanuel Bara

The Lettre du CEPII No. 324 shows that internal devaluation strategies in Latvia and in Ireland produced only limited adjustments at the price of considerable social costs.

International migration and the new role of preferential trade agreements

Facts & Figures, July 17, 2012
By Gianluca Orefice

An international organization (uniquely) in charge of managing international migration flows is missing. However recent Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) include migration related provisions able to manage migration flows. Further, the signature of a PTA itself boosts bilateral migration flows.

The case for the ECB sovereign bonds purchases

Post, July 10, 2012
By Urszula Szczerbowicz

On Thursday July 5th the ECB decided to cut its main refinancing rate to 0.75%, for the first time crossing the historical low of 1%. More importantly, it reduced the overnight deposit facility rate to 0%. In doing so, the ECB encouraged banks to transform the liquidity received via two 3-year LTROs into credit to companies and households, instead of keeping it at the ECB deposit facility.

China cannot achieve the internationalization of its currency without making it fully convertible

Post, July 2, 2012
By Christophe Destais

Although it is not advertised on its website, the Paris branch of the Bank of China is now offering its customers residing in France to open an account in Renminbi (RMB), the Chinese currency. This is a modest but symbolic advance of the big maneuvers that have taken place for the past two years around the currency of the second world economy.

Eurobonds: a way to act swiftly

Post, June 5, 2012
By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

The Eurozone is facing three intertwined and mutually reinforcing crises: a sovereign debt glut, banks’ financial fragility and dampened growth prospects. Further fiscal and political integration seems to be the only way to address these issues.

High and volatile commodity prices weight heavily on the overall economy

Post, May 28, 2012
By Valérie Mignon, Sophie Piton

Commodity markets have recently been at the center of the world economic concerns: their increasing prices and high volatility frighten. A special issue of International Economics focuses on explaining the recent developments on commodity markets.

Natural Resources: a key challenge in regional integration of the Middle East and North Africa region

Post, May 22, 2012
By Julien Gourdon, Céline Carrère, Marcelo Olarreaga

The slow progress of regional integration efforts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region could be explained by the reluctance of resource-rich countries to deepen trade agreements which hurt them.

Revising CEPII World Growth Projections to 2050: Focus on Education and Female Participation to the Labor Force

Facts & Figures, April 23, 2012
By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Lionel Fontagné, Jean Fouré

In a previous post, the CEPII presented its World Growth Projections to 2050. This article focuses on two themes that were not addressed yet: Education and Female Participation to the Labor Force.

Trade liberalization in the services sectors: a promising competitiveness policy for European countries

Post, April 19, 2012
By Cristina Mitaritonna, Matthieu Crozet

In France, like in most Western European countries, the debate on competitiveness is entirely focused on manufacturing industries. The case of services sectors remains in the shadows, even though they undoubtedly are an important source of employment and constitute a clear comparative advantage.

Don’t let the Eurozone crisis go East

Post, April 4, 2012
By Asia-Europe Economic Forum

The eurozone crisis presents a risk for Asian economies. Mainly, the crisis could spread through trade and various financial channels.Yet, economic impact of spillovers is not the only reason why Asia has a specific interest in the survival of the euro.

Le Blog du CEPII : the latest international economic trends analyzed by CEPII's economists

Post, February 17, 2012
By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, CEPII's Director, introduces the Blog du CEPII.

The Great Shift: Macroeconomic Projections for the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon

Post, February 10, 2012
By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Lionel Fontagné, Jean Fouré

The CEPII recently revisited its projections for the world economy in 2050. The great shift in economic power to the emerging countries seems to be accelerating. By 2050, China would represent one-third of the world economy, more than the European Union, the United States, India and Japan all together.

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