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In its forthcoming World Economic Outlook, the IMF proposes an in-depth analysis of two defining features of the world economy in recent years: the persistent slowdown of international trade, and the consistent decline in inflation. On trade, it emphasizes the role of the overall weakness in economic activity, in particular in investment, while also pointing to the waning pace of trade liberalization and the recent uptick in protectionism, as well as the decline in the growth of global value chains. On inflation, the IMF analysis shows that disinflation is broad-based across countries, measures, and sectors—albeit larger for tradable goods than for services. It also shows that the sensitivity of expectations to inflation surprises—an indicator of the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations—has increased in countries where policy rates have approached their effective lower bounds. This raises questions about the perceived ability of monetary policy to combat persistent disinflation. These analyses will be presented by two of their authors.
Zsoka Koczan is an Economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund, having worked previously in the European Department. Prior to joining the IMF in 2013, she worked at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge. Her research interests include applied microeconomics, migration and development.
Aqib Aslam is an Economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund, having worked previously in the European and Fiscal Affairs Departments. Prior to joining the IMF in 2010, he also worked at Goldman Sachs International, the Bank of England and the UK Government Economic Service, as well as studying for a Ph.D. at the University of Cambridge. His research interests include applied macroeconomics and econometrics.
Contact : conferences@cepii.fr |
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