CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
The 14th Five-year Plan in the New Era of China’s Reform Asian Integration, Belt and Road Initiative and Safeguarding Multilateralism

Michel Aglietta
Guo Bai
Camille Macaire

China’s 14th Five-Year Plan aims to inaugurate a structural change from intensive accumulation to innovation-driven growth, with two basic objectives: developing the domestic consumer market for an enlarged middle class, on the one hand; on the other, promoting the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This is the “dual circulation” towards the 2035 long-run objective of achieving a socialist market economy, embedded into an “Eco civilization”. Concerning the domestic part of the strategy, China is pledging innovations combining political ecology and digital economy to handle climate change in pursuing an upgraded commitment to the Paris Agreement. For this ultimate goal, R&D spending is being strategically reinforced. The international part aims at restructuring globalization towards a new geopolitical order. It is structured in three hierarchically intertwined steps. The first is the economic integration of Asia within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest trade agreement worldwide. The second level is the diversified network of infrastructures linking Asia, Africa and Europe along and around the old Silk Roads. The third part is the transcontinental network linking the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans through the Artic Road and the Central and Latin America networks. To succeed, this monumental project needs multilateral cooperation to overcome the huge financial leverage it is generating. Trust will be of the essence in attracting private capital. A tentative advance in Sino-European cooperation has been occurring within an agreement to expand mutual investment opportunities. All in all, China is looking for a strategic repositioning into the global multilateral framework so that the Middle Empire returns to the center of the world. 

 Data :   pb2021-36.xlsx

 Mots-clés : Dual circulation | Belt and Road initiative | Go West | Central bank Digital Currency

 JEL : N55, N75, O53, P41
CEPII Policy Brief
N°2021-36, septembre 2021

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