The CEPII Newsletter       
June 2017        



The French edition is slightly different as it also includes material available in French only  

Europe Monnaie & Finance Trade & Globalization Migrations Economic Policy Emerging Economies Competitivness & Growth Environment & Natural Ressources
  Focus

Feeding the planet by 2050


9.2 billion is the estimated number of individuals that the planet will have to feed by 2050. We estimate an economic model able to replicate the main features of the nutrition transition, which characterizes the evolution of diet with per capita income: rise in calorie consumption with increased income, diversification from starchy staples, and increased caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. We use this model to project global food demand between 2010 and 2050. We predict an increase in caloric demand of 46% for 2050, mainly attributable to low-middle and low income countries. Using alternative projections of populations and revenues shows large uncertainties in the rise of demand for animal-based (alt. vegetal-based) calories, ranging from 78% to 109% (alt. 20% to 42%).

Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard

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Can Innovation Help U.S. Manufacturing Firms Escape Import Competition from China?
May 5, 2017

Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium
May 17, 2017

3rd MENA Trade Workshop
May 17 - 18, 2017

Gary Banks on "The Contribution of National Productivity Councils to Structural Reforms:  
Insights from Australia"

June 7, 2017

The Chinese Economy: enjoy the stability while it lasts
June 9, 2017

17th Doctoral Meetings in International Trade and International Finance
June 26 - 27, 2017

Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns 
June 28, 2017

Michael Bordo on "The Second Era of Globalization is Not Yet Over: A Historical Perspective"
June 29, 2017

XV ELSNIT Annual Conference : Adjustment to Deeper Economic Integration
October 20 - 21, 2017

  Edito



Export price, tariff and exchange rate: the international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think

Unfair competition or exchange rate manipulations are recurrently used as arguments to justify retaliatory tariffs. The answers in the economic literature are incomplete or puzzling, and there is no consensus on the value the elasticity to trade costs In a recent paper, we shed new light on this debate by putting firm-level export prices explicitly at the centre of the analysis of the international elasticity puzzle (Fontagné et al. 2017). Our results, based on French firm-level data, confirm that, when estimated at the firm level, the tariff elasticity is higher (around 2) than the exchange rate elasticity (less than 1). This is the standard international elasticity puzzle. We go further by showing that the export price elasticity is even larger (around 5) than both the tariff and the exchange rate elasticities.

Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Orefice & Philippe Martin

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  Databases




Country Profiles - Update May 2017
Unique tool to analyze international trade, CEPII Country Profiles put together and structure accurate and consistent information about income level, comparative advantages, products’ quality ranges and trade protection for 80 countries, based on CEPII databases. Interactive data, so they can fit different purposes, COUNTRY PROFILES have been designed so as to serve as an input for information, expertise and pedagogy, be it through its friendly-user illustrations or through downloadable data. Access on Visual Data

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ISSN: 1255-7072
Editorial Director : Sébastien Jean
Managing Editor : Dominique Pianelli