CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Long term socio-economic scenarios for Representative Concentration Pathways defining alternative CO2 emission trajectories

Jean Fouré
Lionel Fontagné

Building on an initiative by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an interdisciplinary exercise have been conducted by researchers of the climate change field in order to produce five potential scenarios (the “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” – SSPs) for the 21st century. In this research report, we adapt the narratives describing these five scenarios to the tools developed at the CEPII: the MaGE model, which produces long-term growth projections for 167 countries at the 2100 horizon; and the MIRAGE model, a computable general equilibrium model focusing on trade and the environment which allows us to encompass trade issues.
As an outcome of this research, GDP projections for the 5 SSP scenarios as well as factor accumulation (population, labor, capital, energy) and factor productivity (capital-labor productivity and energy-specific productivity) will be available soon as part of the EconMap database.

 Mots-clés : GDP scenarios | CGE model | dynamic baseline

 JEL : C53, C68, E27, O44, O47; Q56
Rapport d'étude du CEPII
N°2016-01, janvier 2016

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