This column evaluates the ECB’s monetary policy stance based on the concept of the “natural rate of interest”. Our estimation results reveal that the ECB’s asset purchase programme seems to be too accommodating since 2015.

The shift from the concept of an “international monetary system” to that of “global financial safety nets” is positive but, still, limited mostly to emergency liquidity assistance. The broader notion of an “international financial public order” including crisis prevention would be more suitable.

Dollar changes impact negatively oil prices most of the times, except when the dollar reaches particularly high levels. During these episodes of high dollar values, the relation between both variables turns positive.

After an eventful year, many questions are raised about trends in the world economy, on which CEPII will aim at shedding light in the coming year.

The U.S. administration insists on the fact that the TPP is ‘enforceable’. If experience of previous US trade agreements is to offer any guidance, this enforceability cannot be taken for granted. Yet the stakes are high for both regional trade rules’ credibility, and for multilateralism’s future.

Georges Sokoloff nous a quittés ce lundi 7 décembre. Avec ce contributeur de toujours aux travaux du CEPII disparaît l’un des meilleurs experts du monde russe et soviétique.

This column reports the nature and the amplitude of economic cycles in the Euro area since 1970, with a focus on the role of financial factors in generating these cycles.

Paris 2015 marks the start of a climate change investment boom worth trillions of dollars. This upcoming hype begs the question: can we grow our way out of climate change?

In theory, uncertainties about the costs of the low carbon policies implemented by each country to meet the emissions quota imposed by the agreement make it unlikely that any credible agreement could be reached or respected, either because countries would be reluctant to commit, or due to opportunistic cheating.

A factor that clearly differentiates COP21 and COP15 in Copenhagen is the increasing mobilization of the financial sector. In the past months, financial actors have taken commitments and spoken out on climate-related topics.