Europe trades primarily with itself—and increasingly so. Mutual trade flows between EU member states, which account for nearly 60% of the Union's exports, have increased by 4 percentage points over the past decade. This tendency to fall back on the most secure market reflects several disruptions, notably the Brexit shock (perceived as early as the 2015 announcement of the referendum that ultimately led to full withdrawal in 2021), the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Conversely, exports from the EU-27 to the United States—which had also increased by 2.1 percentage points since 2013—now risk declining following the transatlantic tariff agreement announced on July 28, marking a departure from a long-standing period during which the U.S. had been among the EU’s most stable allies, with Donald Trump returning to the presidency in early 2025.

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