CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Deep Trade Agreements and Heterogeneous Firms’ Exports


Matteo Neri-Lainé
Gianluca Orefice
Michele Ruta

 Highlights :
  • The signature of Deep Trade Agreement boosts the export of large and GVC firms.
  • Small and less productive firms suffer the increased competition at destination.
  • The re-allocation of resources from small to large firms may imply positive welfare effect for developing countries signing Deep Trade Agreements.

 Abstract :
This paper studies the effect of regional trade agreements on firms' exports using detailed information on the content of trade agreements and firm-level exports for 31 developing countries between 2000 and 2020. Moving from shallow to deep trade agreements - i.e. agreements that regulate border and behind-the-border policies - boosts firms' exports, on average, by 3.6 percent. In line with models of trade with heterogeneous firms, this effect is stronger for large firms and firms involved in global value chains and (weakly) negative for small firms, suggesting a competition effect of deep trade agreements with significant welfare consequences for signatory countries. An Instrumental Variable strategy and a battery of robustness tests confirm the causal interpretation of the results.


 Keywords : Regional Trade Agreements | Exports | Firm Heterogeneity | Developing Countries

 JEL : F13, F14, F15
CEPII Working Paper
N°2025-11, September 2025

Full text

Reference
BibTeX (with abstract),
plain text (with abstract),
RIS (with abstract)

Contact: 
Back