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USA-EU trade dashboard

While the United States are intensifying tariff measures, find the main data on trade between the European Union and the United States on our new dashboard: bilateral trade balance, composition of trade in goods and services, trade exposures by sector, trade protection, dependencies, as well as our main publications on the topic. Continue reading >>

March 23, 2026

Characterizing Geopolitical Relationships to Better Understand Trade
Nathan Chevalier, Matthieu Crozet, Charlotte Emlinger, Daniel Mirza
The markedly negative tone of relations with Russia has eased for the American and Chinese superpowers, according to the geopolitical climate indicator “Shade."

March 9, 2026

Economic Integration of Non-European Immigrants: Difficulties That Ease Over Time
Anthony Edo, Jérôme Valette
Within the ten main host countries of the European Union (EU), non-European immigrants (born outside the EU) face notable difficulties in economic integration. With comparable socio-economic characteristics, their employment rate is on average 11 percentage points lower than that of native-born individuals.

February 5, 2026

Indo-European Free Trade Agreement: New Market Opportunities for European Products
Houssein Guimbard
Tariffs are at the core of the trade agreement concluded between the European Union (EU) and India at the end of January. The agreement offers European exporters a tangible opportunity to strengthen their presence in this vast market.

January 13, 2026

Conceptualizing Violence in Space as a Flow
Mathieu Couttenier, Julian Marcoux, Thierry Mayer, Mathias Thoening
Many analyses of armed conflicts fail to take into account the spatial origins of combatant groups, as well as the competition among them on predation markets that underlies the diffusion of violence.

Trade & Globalization

Competitiveness & Growth

Emerging Countries

Environment & Natural Resources

LE Graphique – THE Chart

Characterizing Geopolitical Relationships to Better Understand Trade

MIRAGE Model Documentation Version 2.0

MIRAGE is a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium model designed by the CEPII for economic policy analysis, particularly focusing on trade and environmental policies. The model features advanced trade modeling capabilities with detailed treatment of trade costs, Armington specifications, and analysis of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Enhanced energy sector representation includes detailed electricity generation modeling with renewable energy integration considering base-load and peak-load, capital-energy bundles, and greenhouse gas emissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. The sequential dynamic framework enables long-term economic projections by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic forecasts from the MaGE model for consistent policy scenario analysis. Continue reading >>

Analysis and debates

The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety

This CEPII Working Paper develops a quantitative model of trade and conflicts and apply it to the US-China relationship. The authors argue that all welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors, such as the realized costs of war, the concessions to prevent it, and the probability of escalation, depend on the opportunity cost of war, itself shaped by observed trade flows. The growing US dependence to Chinese products over the past thirty years has increased the cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the US. While decoupling from China could offer geopolitical benefits, the paper highlights a fundamental security dilemma: decoupling can paradoxically raise the risk of escalation by weakening incentives for restraint. Continue reading >>

Publications

Avis de tempêtes : l’ombre des tensions géopolitiques sur le commerce international

Pour stabiliser ses ventes à l’international, les diversifier n’est pas toujours la solution

La rareté : un défi pour évaluer les effets des accords commerciaux

Sovereign Gravity: The Military Alliance Effect on Trade

Air Service Agreements, Connectivity and Emissions

What if? Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of the Energy Crisis with Peak-load Electricity

What Strategy Should the European Union Adopt in the Face of US Protectionism?

Working Around Sanctions. What Cost to Russia?

Trump 2.0 Tariffs: What Cost for the World Economy?

Health Products in International Trade: a Full-Fledged Industry Grouping

CEPII Region Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications

CEPII Country Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications

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Coming Events

Le CEPII, partenaire de la Cité de l'économie. Table ronde "Nouvel ordre mondial : où va la géopolitique économique ?"
April 10, 2026

Réfugiés : des immigrés comme les autres ?
April 15, 2026

IMF's World Economic Outlook 2026: defense spending and the macroeconomics of wars and post-conflict recovery
May 5, 2026

Presentation of the CEPII's annual publication "The World Economy 2027"
September 9, 2026

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Past Events

Séminaire de recherche du CEPII : "Domestic Tax Reform, New Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing"
March 26, 2026

The investment and broader macroeconomic impacts of the EU’s energy transition. Discussion with Romain Duval (IMF)
March 25, 2026

Séminaire compétitivité CEPII-Banque de France : L'UE sous pression ? Analyse du détournement du commerce chinois
March 25, 2026

7th EMME Workshop Emerging Market MacroEconomics
March 20, 2026

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