By restricting access to the U.S. market for Chinese exporters, the tariff war launched by Donald Trump upon his return to office in February 2025 has revived concerns that Chinese exports could be redirected toward the European Union (EU), the world’s largest consumer market outside the United States. These concerns are well founded in light of the experience of the first Trump administration. The tariffs imposed on China in 2018 and 2019 led to a substantial diversion of Chinese trade toward Europe. After 12 months, 27.7% of the Chinese exports lost in the U.S. market had been redirected to the EU, making it the primary destination for diverted trade.

Applied to the current period, these estimates suggest that €28 billion of Chinese exports may have been redirected from the United States to the EU. This would represent 5.6% of Chinese exports to the EU in 2024, or roughly two-thirds of the growth in bilateral trade recorded between 2024 and 2025.

For further reading: L’Union européenne sous pression : les droits de douane américains redirigent-ils les exportations chinoises vers l’Europe ?