CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Lundi 17 novembre 2025
14h-15h15 - CEPII, 20 avenue de Ségur, 75007 Paris
Séminaire de recherche du CEPII  "Trade Dynamics in Sovereign Debt Crises"

tamon asonuma
Economist, Strategy Policy and Review Department in 
International Monetary Fund
Tamon Asonuma will present "Trade Dynamics in Sovereign Debt Crises". This paper was co-authored by Marcos Chamon, Yasumasa Morito, Akira Sasahara.
 
Sovereign debt restructurings can have large impacts on trade, with a significant compression of imports and a more ambiguous effect on exports. We show that the magnitude of that impact depends on whether restructurings preempt a default or take place after payments have been missed, with the latter associated with longer and deeper crises. Import compression is significantly higher following post-default restructurings, which also tend to be associated with higher exports relative to preemptive restructurings. This is consistent with the need for a larger external adjustment following a default. We also show how the effect varies across types of goods, and a larger impact when initial aggregate domestic demand in the debtor’s economy is high.

BY INVITATION ONLY
Contact: conferencesatcepii.fr