The latest international economic trends analyzed by CEPII's economists

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COP21

Authors
Michel Aglietta
Yves-Emmanuel Bara
Maria Bas
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Antoine Berthou
Céline Carrère
Benjamin Carton
Virginie Coudert
Matthieu Crozet
Christophe Destais
Evelyne Dourille-Feer
Etienne Espagne
Lionel Fontagné
Michel Fouquin
Jean Fouré
Julien Gourdon
Olena Havrylchyk
Jérôme Héricourt
Colette Herzog
Sébastien Jean
Marc Joëts
Svetlana Ledyaeva
Françoise Lemoine
Stéphane Lhuissier
Valérie Mignon
Cristina Mitaritonna
Francesco Molteni
Laurence Nayman
Marcelo Olarreaga
Gianluca Orefice
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Sophie Piton
Gianluca Santoni
Urszula Szczerbowicz
Cristina Terra
Fabien Tripier
Deniz Ünal
Natacha Valla
Guanghua Wan

Why denser areas are more productive

Competitiveness & Growth 
Post, December 2, 2016
By Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Santoni
A key driver of productivity is ease of resource allocation. This column uses firm-level data for France to show that misallocation has a spatial dimension: resource allocation and the associated effect on productivity are related not only to firms’ characteristics, but also to the environment in which they operate. Denser commuting zones seem to offer a better match between employers and employees, leading to more productive firms.
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Improving the G20 process

Economic Policy | Money & Finance | Emerging Countries 
Post, October 24, 2016
By Christophe Destais
The recent G20 Hangzhou Summit is yet another example of the difficulties the G20 has to move ahead at cruising speed. Changes in the G20 process might help to increase its impact.
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Comments on IMF’s “Global Trade: What’s behind the Slowdown?” – or why there is more to trade slowdown than weak demand

Trade & Globalization 
Post, October 18, 2016
By Sébastien Jean
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook points to weak demand and investment as the main factor behind the world trade slowdown. I argue that this conclusion is overblown and that the high-quality underlying work falls well short of explaining the slow trade puzzle.
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Brazil: restoring fiscal austerity while preserving public services

Emerging Countries 
Post, September 7, 2016
By Cristina Terra
Restoring fiscal austerity in Brazil is not an easy task since the government faces both exerts from privileged groups and constraints establishing minimum public expenditures on some bills. It could however be done without penalizing public services if their efficiency is improved.
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Should we fear the Brexit uncertainty?
IMF versus Krugman

Competitiveness & Growth | Europe 
Post, August 19, 2016
By Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier
IMF cuts global growth forecasts following Brexit vote. Paul Krugman has taken a different point of view by arguing there is no reason to worry in the immediate future. This opposition reflects clearly two different opinions on the short-term consequences of uncertainty.
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In search of a liquid asset for European financial markets

Money & Finance | Europe 
Post, July 15, 2016
By Francesco Molteni
European financial markets face a shortage of liquid assets. New regulations increase banks’ demand for liquid securities, mainly sovereign bonds, but the European fiscal rules constrain the supply of public debt. Further, the QE is draining bonds from the market. Some proposed forms of “Eurobonds” or new debt securities issued by European supranational organizations could solve this problem.
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How Multi-Destination Firms Shape the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade

Trade & Globalization | Money & Finance 
Post, June 14, 2016
By Jérôme Héricourt, Clément Nedoncelle
The idea that exchange rate volatility could be detrimental to international trade is widely accepted. Surprisingly, macroeconomic evidence on its impact on trade yields either small or insignificant effect on aggregate outcomes. This column suggests that the behavior of big, multi-destination firms help explain this puzzle.
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Through the lenses of the natural rate of interest, European monetary policy appears to be too loose since 2015

Money & Finance 
Post, May 27, 2016
By Stéphane Lhuissier
This column evaluates the ECB’s monetary policy stance based on the concept of the “natural rate of interest”. Our estimation results reveal that the ECB’s asset purchase programme seems to be too accommodating since 2015.
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Towards an international financial public order

Money & Finance | Economic Policy 
Post, February 9, 2016
By Christophe Destais
The shift from the concept of an “international monetary system” to that of “global financial safety nets” is positive but, still, limited mostly to emergency liquidity assistance. The broader notion of an “international financial public order” including crisis prevention would be more suitable.
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Falling oil price and appreciating dollar: is it normal?

Money & Finance | Environment & Natural Resources 
Post, January 27, 2016
By Virginie Coudert, Valérie Mignon
Dollar changes impact negatively oil prices most of the times, except when the dollar reaches particularly high levels. During these episodes of high dollar values, the relation between both variables turns positive.
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