Le blog du CEPII

The "new silk roads": an evaluation essay
(3/4): China as a global player in globalization

 PostApril 29, 2019
By Michel Fouquin, Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière
A review of China's international activity since 2013 is striking first of all by the speed with which it has made China a major player in globalization in terms of both direct investment and lending to developing countries. The Silk Roads project, which is a unique and unconventional project, appears above all as a means of gradually structuring the Chinese vision of globalization, which combines China's long-term economic and strategic interest.

Addressing macroeconomic imbalances within the euro area: still a long road ahead

 PostApril 15, 2019
By Virginie Coudert, Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon
The shock caused by the 2007-08 financial collapse, followed by the European sovereign debt crisis, has raised new doubts about the ability of the single currency to work well in a region with huge economic and political diversity. It has also given a new dimension to this debate by highlighting the building-up of unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances within the European Monetary Union (EMU).

Deep PTAs, Global Value Chains and Migration

 PostDecember 2, 2018
By Gianluca Orefice
Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) can be used by signatory countries to manage international migration flows and participation in global value chain. The inclusion of an additional provision in PTAs stimulates the bilateral fragmentation of production by 1 percent, while PTAs that facilitate visa and asylum administrative procedures stimulate bilateral migration by up to 34 percent.

Why the WTO needs reform

 PostNovember 16, 2018
By Sébastien Jean
The world trading system is facing an existential crisis. This calls for a significant update of the rulebook, dealing with dissatisfactions regarding negotiation and rules, surveillance, as well as adjudication.

Fixing the euro needs to go beyond economics

 PostOctober 29, 2018
By Anne-Laure Delatte
The agenda to fix the euro is hampered by conflicting national interests. Creditor countries demand fiscal house cleaning and debtor countries ask for risk sharing. There is currently a political deadlock about how the adjustment burden should be distributed, perpetuating a state of vulnerability that is not in the collective interest of euro area members. This column, part of the Vox debate on euro area reform, argues that overcoming this coordination failure requires reforming the political governance of the EU, rather than just its economic governance.
This post has been first published on VoxEU.

Lifting the lid on the black box of informal trade in Africa

 PostOctober 5, 2018
By Joachim Jarreau, Cristina Mitaritonna, Sami Bensassi
This post, already published on The Conversation, explains how official statistics do not reflect the reality of internal trade in Africa. Intra Africa trade seems low despite numerous regional trade agreements that have led to tariffs removal within the trading blocs. However, a large part of cross-border trade between African countries is informal.

Banks Defy Gravity in Tax Havens

 PostSeptember 21, 2018
By Vincent Bouvatier, Gunther Capelle-Blancard, Anne-Laure Delatte
This post, already published in Voxeu, examines the contribution of EU banks to tax evasion. It presents the new finding that bank activity in tax havens is three times larger when using new country-by-country regulatory data than what is predicted by the gravity model, and that British and German banks are particularly present in tax havens.

France and Europe in Globalization

 VideoApril 12, 2018
On the occasion of its 40th anniversary, three panel discussions, CEPII brought together experts, foreign and French, decision-makers and academics to discuss the major challenges that France and Europe are facing ten years after the crisis and the deep transformation of the international economic relationships.
See videos et presentations.

Japan-Europe, the unnoticed megadeal

 PostOctober 26, 2017
By Sébastien Jean
Trade between Japan and the EU is not a big deal in world trade, barely more than 1%. Their Economic Partnership Agreement can nevertheless be very influential because, jointly, they are a party in more than 40% of world trade, and much more in innovative sectors.

Why denser areas are more productive

 PostDecember 2, 2016
By Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Santoni
A key driver of productivity is ease of resource allocation. This column uses firm-level data for France to show that misallocation has a spatial dimension: resource allocation and the associated effect on productivity are related not only to firms’ characteristics, but also to the environment in which they operate. Denser commuting zones seem to offer a better match between employers and employees, leading to more productive firms.

In search of a liquid asset for European financial markets

 PostJuly 15, 2016
By Francesco Molteni
European financial markets face a shortage of liquid assets. New regulations increase banks’ demand for liquid securities, mainly sovereign bonds, but the European fiscal rules constrain the supply of public debt. Further, the QE is draining bonds from the market. Some proposed forms of “Eurobonds” or new debt securities issued by European supranational organizations could solve this problem.

Business Cycles in Europe since 1970

 PostDecember 10, 2015
By Stéphane Lhuissier
This column reports the nature and the amplitude of economic cycles in the Euro area since 1970, with a focus on the role of financial factors in generating these cycles.

The price of carbon: ways forward after COP-21

 PostNovember 26, 2015
By Christian de Perthuis, Pierre-André Jouvet, Raphaël Trotignon
Because the climate is a common good, economists generally advocate the use of an international carbon price to internalize climate risk, to incorporate as many countries as possible into an agreement and to thwart “free-rider” strategies.

Towards a Sustainable Financial System

 PostNovember 26, 2015
By Armin Haas
It will be key for the global sustainability transition that the measures taken in the respective sustainability dimensions, i.e. the economic, the ecological, and the social dimension, complement and reinforce each other.

How Could We Finance Low-Carbon Investments in Europe?

 PostOctober 22, 2015
By Michel Aglietta, Etienne Espagne, Vincent Aussilloux, Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert
This year, Europe is confronted with a critical double challenge: addressing the climate change issue and pulling itself out of a persistent low growth trap. Today these two challenges are addressed separately. We propose to make private low-carbon assets eligible for the ECB asset purchase program.

Climate Finance in the Context of Sustainable Development

 PostOctober 22, 2015
By Ottmar Edenhofer, Jan Christoph Steckel, Michael Jakob
Novel ideas how to spend climate finance in a way that reduces emissions and at the same time promotes recipients’ immediate development objectives are required. In this short commentary, we propose to regard climate finance in the broader context of sustainable development.

Why Finance Can Save the Planet

 PostOctober 15, 2015
By Jean Pisani-Ferry
Most people hate finance, viewing it as the epitome of irresponsibility and greed. But, even after causing a once-in-a-century recession and unemployment for millions, finance looks indispensable for preventing an even worse catastrophe: climate change.

The “$100 000 000 000 per year” question

 PostOctober 8, 2015
By Christian De Perthuis, Pierre-André Jouvet
A mechanism of carbon “bonus-malus” is proposed, where the average emission rate of world countries serves as the anchor: above the threshold, countries should pay a malus, under this level, they would receive a bonus.

An Investment Climate for Climate Investment

 PostSeptember 22, 2015
By Sam Fankhauser
Three factors hold back low-carbon investment in Europe: the risk/return profile of low-carbon investment projects, regulatory and behavioural features in the financial sector and a more global political economy context. These are key issues to create an investment climate for climate investment.

Guideposts for low-carbon finance

 PostSeptember 18, 2015
By Billy Pizer
Four guide-posts for efficient low-carbon finance are proposed: remove subsidies for high-carbon technologies, improve the cost-effectiveness of low-carbon subsidies, encourage private sector innovation, and maintain transparent public policy tools that support cost-benefit accounting.

How to Finance the Low Carbon Transition: The Role of the Financial System

 PostSeptember 17, 2015
By Etienne Espagne, Baptiste Perrissin Fabert
The aim of this webpage, co-hosted by France Stratégie and CEPII, is to provide a medium for experts and non-experts to discuss the merits and the limits of the various proposals and initiatives in the field of international finance. It is intended to become a forum where the debate on the financial system’s contribution to the energy transition can flourish.

What could be Japan contribution to COP 21?

 PostMay 28, 2015
By Evelyne Dourille-Feer
Europe was disappointed in the GHG emissions reduction proposal by Japan in the context of the COP 21: -25.4% between 2005 and 2030. Japan could nonetheless help move forward the climate issue by its technologies and original experiences.

Volatility and uncertainty are not the same!

 PostMay 4, 2015
By Valérie Mignon, Marc Joëts, Tovonony Razafindrabe
Crude oil price volatility is often viewed as reflecting uncertainty not only related to the oil market, but also to the global macroeconomic environment. However, the question arises as to whether uncertainty is not likely to be at play without generating high volatility on the oil market.

Back to the Great Moderation?

 PostApril 30, 2015
By Stéphane Lhuissier
Following the largest financial shock since the Great Depression, modern industrial countries appear to be coming back to a moderate growth trajectory, as was the case for the last three decades.

Europe is trapped by its competitiveness obsession

 PostApril 22, 2015
By Sébastien Jean
While European external surpluses are accumulating and domestic demand is slacking, insisting on improving the Union’s external competitiveness, as some in the Commission are presently doing, is paradoxical. For Europe, the paramount risk is not losing its competitiveness. It is not recovering cohesion and growth.

QE - "European style": be bolder, but parsimonious!

 PostMarch 24, 2015
By Urszula Szczerbowicz, Natacha Valla
The ECB will purchase a monthly €60bn of private and public debt instruments between March 2015 and September 2016 – a total worth over €1 trillion. While the timing and size of purchases are known, there is more leeway than it seems in the way purchases are allocated to each category of assets.

Quantitative Easing: were markets surprised?

 PostJanuary 24, 2015
By Stéphane Lhuissier
The ECB has announced that it will launch in March its first round of quantitative easing. The announcement contains some good and bad surprises: the size of the ECB's plan is gigantic, while the Central Bank was unclear about the Greek issue. How was this announcement perceived by markets?

ECB equity purchases: too risky, really?

 PostJanuary 9, 2015
By Urszula Szczerbowicz, Natacha Valla
Instead of buying sovereign debt, the ECB could broaden further its purchases to include equity of all sorts. Fuelling an equity bubble is no worse than fuelling a bond one. It can be mitigated by intervening secretly and including non listed securities. Inhibitions to take risk should be lifted.

Long live the Juncker Plan!

 PostDecember 21, 2014
By Natacha Valla
The long awaited Juncker Plan for investment in Europe has arrived a few weeks ago. Beyond the creation of a Strategic Fund, the Plan as a whole has disappointed: not adamant enough to eliminate the deep obstacles to cross-border investment, and opaque in generating the “List” of projects to be financed. Yet, even imperfectly, Europe has now done its homework.

The delusion of State guarantees

 PostOctober 3, 2014
By Natacha Valla
European policymakers are currently busy addressing two issues: moribund investment and banks on extended sick leave. Some observers might be tempted to segregate these issues. While investment would be in the remit of States, the financial health of our economies would be under the responsibility of the ECB alone.

Euro area: deflation is the wrong debate

 PostMarch 6, 2014
By Natacha Valla
For a fact, measures of headline consumer price inflation have decelerated sharply over the recent past. At 0.8-1%; inflation hovers around levels that are clearly below the ECB’s flagship 2% medium-term objective.

The French should care about Karlsruhe

 PostFebruary 12, 2014
By Natacha Valla
Strikingly, the debate about the Feb 7 ruling of the German Constitutional Court against the ECB’s flagship OMT programme has gone almost unnoticed in France. This is wrong. The French should care about it.

Emerging turbulences

 PostSeptember 10, 2013
By Christophe Destais
The current turmoil in emerging capital markets is the result of a classical reversal of market sentiment after an excess of optimism. There are good reasons for being cautiously optimistic but uncertainties remain.

Challenges ahead for the next WTO DG

 PostMay 2, 2013
By Sébastien Jean
The WTO is going through a leadership transition as after 8 years, the incumbent Director-General steps down on September 1, 2013. What are the challenges ahead for Pascal Lamy’s successor? The next DG will certainly have to take the Doha loss and move toward an updated multilateral trading system.

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