Comments on IMF’s “Global Trade: What’s behind the Slowdown?” – or why there is more to trade slowdown than weak demandPost, October 18, 2016
By Sébastien Jean
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook points to weak demand and investment as the main factor behind the world trade slowdown. I argue that this conclusion is overblown and that the high-quality underlying work falls well short of explaining the slow trade puzzle.
Brazil: restoring fiscal austerity while preserving public servicesPost, September 7, 2016
By Cristina Terra
Restoring fiscal austerity in Brazil is not an easy task since the government faces both exerts from privileged groups and constraints establishing minimum public expenditures on some bills. It could however be done without penalizing public services if their efficiency is improved.
Should we fear the Brexit uncertainty? Post, August 19, 2016
IMF versus Krugman
By Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier
IMF cuts global growth forecasts following Brexit vote. Paul Krugman has taken a different point of view by arguing there is no reason to worry in the immediate future. This opposition reflects clearly two different opinions on the short-term consequences of uncertainty.
In search of a liquid asset for European financial marketsPost, July 15, 2016
By Francesco Molteni
European financial markets face a shortage of liquid assets. New regulations increase banks’ demand for liquid securities, mainly sovereign bonds, but the European fiscal rules constrain the supply of public debt. Further, the QE is draining bonds from the market. Some proposed forms of “Eurobonds” or new debt securities issued by European supranational organizations could solve this problem.
How Multi-Destination Firms Shape the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on TradePost, June 14, 2016
By Jérôme Héricourt, Clément Nedoncelle
The idea that exchange rate volatility could be detrimental to international trade is widely accepted. Surprisingly, macroeconomic evidence on its impact on trade yields either small or insignificant effect on aggregate outcomes. This column suggests that the behavior of big, multi-destination firms help explain this puzzle.
Through the lenses of the natural rate of interest, European monetary policy appears to be too loose since 2015Post, May 27, 2016
By Stéphane Lhuissier
This column evaluates the ECB’s monetary policy stance based on the concept of the “natural rate of interest”. Our estimation results reveal that the ECB’s asset purchase programme seems to be too accommodating since 2015.
Towards an international financial public orderPost, February 9, 2016
By Christophe Destais
The shift from the concept of an “international monetary system” to that of “global financial safety nets” is positive but, still, limited mostly to emergency liquidity assistance. The broader notion of an “international financial public order” including crisis prevention would be more suitable.
Falling oil price and appreciating dollar: is it normal?Post, January 27, 2016
By Virginie Coudert, Valérie Mignon
Dollar changes impact negatively oil prices most of the times, except when the dollar reaches particularly high levels. During these episodes of high dollar values, the relation between both variables turns positive.