Donald Trump fighting a losing battle against geography
Post, February 3, 2017By Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Santoni
The US President has a problem with the American geography – a problem called Mexico.
Post, February 3, 2017By Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Santoni
The effects of Trumpian uncertainty on U.S. economy
Post, January 25, 2017By Fabien Tripier, Stéphane Lhuissier
The election of Donald Trump has generated a climate of uncertainty about U.S. economic policy that will be implemented in the near future. How much should we worry about this “Trumpian uncertainty”?
Carrier International: the beginning of the unraveling of globalization?
Post, December 15, 2016By Jean-Francois Boittin
Dec. 1st may well be remembered in the history books of the 22nd century as the beginning of the end of globalization. This is the day when the President-elect paraded his “victory” over the management of Carrier International, a unit of United Technologies that had announced the move of 2,000 some jobs to Mexico.
Why denser areas are more productive
Post, December 2, 2016By Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Santoni
A key driver of productivity is ease of resource allocation. This column uses firm-level data for France to show that misallocation has a spatial dimension: resource allocation and the associated effect on productivity are related not only to firms’ characteristics, but also to the environment in which they operate. Denser commuting zones seem to offer a better match between employers and employees, leading to more productive firms.
Improving the G20 process
Post, October 24, 2016By Christophe Destais
The recent G20 Hangzhou Summit is yet another example of the difficulties the G20 has to move ahead at cruising speed. Changes in the G20 process might help to increase its impact.
Comments on IMF’s “Global Trade: What’s behind the Slowdown?” – or why there is more to trade slowdown than weak demand
Post, October 18, 2016By Sébastien Jean
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook points to weak demand and investment as the main factor behind the world trade slowdown. I argue that this conclusion is overblown and that the high-quality underlying work falls well short of explaining the slow trade puzzle.
Brazil: restoring fiscal austerity while preserving public services
Post, September 7, 2016By Cristina Terra
Restoring fiscal austerity in Brazil is not an easy task since the government faces both exerts from privileged groups and constraints establishing minimum public expenditures on some bills. It could however be done without penalizing public services if their efficiency is improved.
Should we fear the Brexit uncertainty?
IMF versus Krugman
Post, August 19, 2016By Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier
IMF cuts global growth forecasts following Brexit vote. Paul Krugman has taken a different point of view by arguing there is no reason to worry in the immediate future. This opposition reflects clearly two different opinions on the short-term consequences of uncertainty.
In search of a liquid asset for European financial markets
Post, July 15, 2016By Francesco Molteni
European financial markets face a shortage of liquid assets. New regulations increase banks’ demand for liquid securities, mainly sovereign bonds, but the European fiscal rules constrain the supply of public debt. Further, the QE is draining bonds from the market. Some proposed forms of “Eurobonds” or new debt securities issued by European supranational organizations could solve this problem.
.png)
How Multi-Destination Firms Shape the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade
Post, June 14, 2016By Jérôme Héricourt, Clément Nedoncelle
The idea that exchange rate volatility could be detrimental to international trade is widely accepted. Surprisingly, macroeconomic evidence on its impact on trade yields either small or insignificant effect on aggregate outcomes. This column suggests that the behavior of big, multi-destination firms help explain this puzzle.
Through the lenses of the natural rate of interest, European monetary policy appears to be too loose since 2015
Post, May 27, 2016By Stéphane Lhuissier
This column evaluates the ECB’s monetary policy stance based on the concept of the “natural rate of interest”. Our estimation results reveal that the ECB’s asset purchase programme seems to be too accommodating since 2015.
Towards an international financial public order
Post, February 9, 2016By Christophe Destais
The shift from the concept of an “international monetary system” to that of “global financial safety nets” is positive but, still, limited mostly to emergency liquidity assistance. The broader notion of an “international financial public order” including crisis prevention would be more suitable.
Falling oil price and appreciating dollar: is it normal?
Post, January 27, 2016By Virginie Coudert, Valérie Mignon
Dollar changes impact negatively oil prices most of the times, except when the dollar reaches particularly high levels. During these episodes of high dollar values, the relation between both variables turns positive.
Best wishes for 2016!
Post, January 1, 2016By Sébastien Jean
After an eventful year, many questions are raised about trends in the world economy, on which CEPII will aim at shedding light in the coming year.
Enforcement of FTAs: lessons for TPP and new trade agreements
Post, December 15, 2015By Sébastien Jean, Kevin Lefebvre
The U.S. administration insists on the fact that the TPP is ‘enforceable’. If experience of previous US trade agreements is to offer any guidance, this enforceability cannot be taken for granted. Yet the stakes are high for both regional trade rules’ credibility, and for multilateralism’s future.
Georges Sokoloff
Post, December 12, 2015By Michel Fouquin, Sébastien Jean, Jean-Pierre Saltiel
Georges Sokoloff nous a quittés ce lundi 7 décembre. Avec ce contributeur de toujours aux travaux du CEPII disparaît l’un des meilleurs experts du monde russe et soviétique.
Business Cycles in Europe since 1970
Post, December 10, 2015By Stéphane Lhuissier
This column reports the nature and the amplitude of economic cycles in the Euro area since 1970, with a focus on the role of financial factors in generating these cycles.
Trillions in Transition: Growing our Way out of Climate Change?
Post, December 7, 2015By D.A. Loorbach, R. Lijnis Huffenreuter
Paris 2015 marks the start of a climate change investment boom worth trillions of dollars. This upcoming hype begs the question: can we grow our way out of climate change?
To Recognize the Social Value of Mitigation Actions in a Climate Agreement
Post, December 7, 2015By Dominique Finon
In theory, uncertainties about the costs of the low carbon policies implemented by each country to meet the emissions quota imposed by the agreement make it unlikely that any credible agreement could be reached or respected, either because countries would be reluctant to commit, or due to opportunistic cheating.
Thinking ‘Eco-Systemically’ to Shift the Trillions
Post, December 7, 2015By Romain Morel, Ian Cochran
A factor that clearly differentiates COP21 and COP15 in Copenhagen is the increasing mobilization of the financial sector. In the past months, financial actors have taken commitments and spoken out on climate-related topics.
The price of carbon: ways forward after COP-21
Post, November 26, 2015By Christian de Perthuis, Pierre-André Jouvet, Raphaël Trotignon
Because the climate is a common good, economists generally advocate the use of an international carbon price to internalize climate risk, to incorporate as many countries as possible into an agreement and to thwart “free-rider” strategies.
Towards a Sustainable Financial System
Post, November 26, 2015By Armin Haas
It will be key for the global sustainability transition that the measures taken in the respective sustainability dimensions, i.e. the economic, the ecological, and the social dimension, complement and reinforce each other.
Environmental policy performance bonds
Post, November 12, 2015By Abdeldjellil Bouzidi, Michael Mainelli
Linking public debt to CO2 emissions could give governments a strong incentive to deliver on climate change action.
Is the exchange rate – oil price nexus stable over time?
Post, October 26, 2015By Valérie Mignon, Jean-Pierre Allegret, Cécile Couharde, Tovonony Razafindrabe
It is a widely accepted view that many commodity-exporting countries have commodity currencies, in that movements in real commodity prices can explain fluctuations in their real exchange rates.
How Could We Finance Low-Carbon Investments in Europe?
Post, October 22, 2015By Michel Aglietta, Etienne Espagne, Vincent Aussilloux, Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert
This year, Europe is confronted with a critical double challenge: addressing the climate change issue and pulling itself out of a persistent low growth trap. Today these two challenges are addressed separately. We propose to make private low-carbon assets eligible for the ECB asset purchase program.
A €120bn investment programme for the European Union’s three-year Juncker Plan
Post, October 22, 2015By Michel Lepetit
Massive financing of the energy transition in schools, hospitals
and other public buildings.
and other public buildings.
Financing the Green Climate Fund
Post, October 22, 2015By Matthias Kroll
How central banks can contribute to staying below the 2°C benchmark by purchasing Green Climate Bonds.
Climate Finance in the Context of Sustainable Development
Post, October 22, 2015By Ottmar Edenhofer, Jan Christoph Steckel, Michael Jakob
Novel ideas how to spend climate finance in a way that reduces emissions and at the same time promotes recipients’ immediate development objectives are required. In this short commentary, we propose to regard climate finance in the broader context of sustainable development.
Thaïlande : du pari de l’ouverture au défi de la modernisation ?
Post, October 20, 2015By Alix de Saint Vaulry
L’économie thaïlandaise a de nombreux atouts, comme le montrent les Profils Pays du CEPII : sa stratégie de développement repose sur une bonne insertion dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales, et sur le pari d’une forte ouverture à l’international.
After TPP: the EU shouldn’t rush into concluding TTIP
Post, October 15, 2015By Sébastien Jean
Despite the magnitude of the Transpacific Partnership Agreement concluded by the United States, the EU should not heed calls to rush into concluding ongoing Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership talks under the Obama administration at any cost, and focus instead on negotiating a good agreement.
Why Finance Can Save the Planet
Post, October 15, 2015By Jean Pisani-Ferry
Most people hate finance, viewing it as the epitome of irresponsibility and greed. But, even after causing a once-in-a-century recession and unemployment for millions, finance looks indispensable for preventing an even worse catastrophe: climate change.
The “$100 000 000 000 per year” question
Post, October 8, 2015By Christian De Perthuis, Pierre-André Jouvet
A mechanism of carbon “bonus-malus” is proposed, where the average emission rate of world countries serves as the anchor: above the threshold, countries should pay a malus, under this level, they would receive a bonus.
Financial Innovation and The State: Lessons for 21st Century Climate Finance from the 19th Century Railways Era
Post, October 1, 2015By Dipak Dasgupta
This paper seeks to bring a historical perspective to current global financial architecture issues on the speed and scale of climate finance needed to achieve a safer two degrees world. We look back in history to a similar episode for lessons: the financing and building of railroads in the 19th century.
Supporting the energy transition: the role of low interest rates
Post, October 1, 2015By Pierre Monnin
Low interest rates tend to favor ‘green technologies’ competitiveness while also increasing their cost volatility.
The Role of International Financial Institutions, Central Banks and Monetary Policies in the Low-Carbon Transition
Post, October 1, 2015By Colin Hines
An argument in favor of Green infrastructure Quantitative Easing (GIQE).
Sovereign debt restructuring: alternative solutions
Post, September 24, 2015By Christophe Destais
The implementation of a multilateral mechanism for sovereign debt restructuring that the UN is calling for, is illusory. However, progress could be achieved in different ways: improving the contractual terms, introducing new clauses on automatic debt reprofiling and using the leverage of international funding.
An Investment Climate for Climate Investment
Post, September 22, 2015By Sam Fankhauser
Three factors hold back low-carbon investment in Europe: the risk/return profile of low-carbon investment projects, regulatory and behavioural features in the financial sector and a more global political economy context. These are key issues to create an investment climate for climate investment.
What Role for Financial Supervisors in Addressing Systemic Environmental Risk?
Post, September 22, 2015By Rens van Tilburg
Financial shocks can originate from ecological imbalances what justifies more careful attention by the financial regulators to this specific risk. A new macroprudential framework is proposed.
Positive Pricing of Carbon Reduction: A Low Hanging Fruit
Post, September 22, 2015By Alfredo Sirkis
A new UN Climate agreement will probably be signed by the end of this year with some incremental progress but even inveterate optimists like myself don’t believe it will be capable of ‘bridging the gap’ between the maximum that 196 governments can agree upon by consensus...
.png)
The exit from the U.S. zero interest-rate policy should be done gradually
Post, September 18, 2015By Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier
Once again, the Federal Reserve has postponed the date of exit from the zero lower bound. We show that the pace of the tightening cycle matters more than the exact timing of the first interest rate hike for the macroeconomy.
More Political Economy on Global Warming and a Proposition
Post, September 18, 2015By Michel Aglietta, Etienne Espagne
We draw six political economy lessons from the actual dynamics of climate negotiations and their connection to the new macroeconomic normal emerging in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. A specific proposal follows.
Reorienting financial intermediation towards sustainable financing: Bangladesh Bank’s approach
Post, September 18, 2015By M.A.M. Kazemi
The Bangladesh central bank has a long tradition of favouring socially sustainable financing behavior. It was thus natural to extend its mission to the question of climate change mitigation and adaptation investments, both internally and externally in the global financial system.
Guideposts for low-carbon finance
Post, September 18, 2015By Billy Pizer
Four guide-posts for efficient low-carbon finance are proposed: remove subsidies for high-carbon technologies, improve the cost-effectiveness of low-carbon subsidies, encourage private sector innovation, and maintain transparent public policy tools that support cost-benefit accounting.
Four Roadblocks to a Global Climate Agreement
Post, September 18, 2015By Jean Pisani-Ferry
As the pace of action looks set to rumble on, countries should seek to make progress on resolving several key issues including the free-rider problem.
How to Finance the Low Carbon Transition: The Role of the Financial System
Post, September 17, 2015By Etienne Espagne, Baptiste Perrissin Fabert
The aim of this webpage, co-hosted by France Stratégie and CEPII, is to provide a medium for experts and non-experts to discuss the merits and the limits of the various proposals and initiatives in the field of international finance. It is intended to become a forum where the debate on the financial system’s contribution to the energy transition can flourish.
China: what are the motivations of the recent depreciation of the RMB?
Post, September 14, 2015By Christophe Destais
The decision to change the exchange rate regime of the renminbi taken by the Chinese authorities at the beginning of August might be less a response to the economic downturn than a further step, against all odds, in a bold but risky financial liberalization agenda.
.bmp)
Was the IMF right to come to the rescue of Greece in 2010?
Post, June 30, 2015By Christophe Destais
Back in 2010, the Eurozone countries insisted a lot that the IMF provides exceptional financing to Greece. They will be duly reminded when the reckoning moment has come.
Structural reforms: why did the term become so "toxic"?
Post, May 29, 2015By Sophie Piton
From May 21 to May 23, the ECB organized its 2nd annual forum on Central banking. Mario Draghi's inaugural speech, as well as discussions on May 23rd, focused mainly on the need for structural reforms to strengthen growth in Europe.
What could be Japan contribution to COP 21?
Post, May 28, 2015By Evelyne Dourille-Feer
Europe was disappointed in the GHG emissions reduction proposal by Japan in the context of the COP 21: -25.4% between 2005 and 2030. Japan could nonetheless help move forward the climate issue by its technologies and original experiences.
The Chinese game of Go in the international financial system
Post, May 12, 2015By Christophe Destais
The rallying of major Western countries to the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank provides yet another illustration of the relevance of the analogy between China's diplomacy and the game of Go aimed at placing pawns patiently to stifle one’s opponents and conquer territories.
