Best wishes for 2016!
Post, January 1, 2016By Sébastien Jean
After an eventful year, many questions are raised about trends in the world economy, on which CEPII will aim at shedding light in the coming year.
Post, January 1, 2016By Sébastien Jean
Enforcement of FTAs: lessons for TPP and new trade agreements
Post, December 15, 2015By Sébastien Jean, Kevin Lefebvre
The U.S. administration insists on the fact that the TPP is ‘enforceable’. If experience of previous US trade agreements is to offer any guidance, this enforceability cannot be taken for granted. Yet the stakes are high for both regional trade rules’ credibility, and for multilateralism’s future.
Georges Sokoloff
Post, December 12, 2015By Michel Fouquin, Sébastien Jean, Jean-Pierre Saltiel
Georges Sokoloff nous a quittés ce lundi 7 décembre. Avec ce contributeur de toujours aux travaux du CEPII disparaît l’un des meilleurs experts du monde russe et soviétique.
Business Cycles in Europe since 1970
Post, December 10, 2015By Stéphane Lhuissier
This column reports the nature and the amplitude of economic cycles in the Euro area since 1970, with a focus on the role of financial factors in generating these cycles.
Trillions in Transition: Growing our Way out of Climate Change?
Post, December 7, 2015By D.A. Loorbach, R. Lijnis Huffenreuter
Paris 2015 marks the start of a climate change investment boom worth trillions of dollars. This upcoming hype begs the question: can we grow our way out of climate change?
To Recognize the Social Value of Mitigation Actions in a Climate Agreement
Post, December 7, 2015By Dominique Finon
In theory, uncertainties about the costs of the low carbon policies implemented by each country to meet the emissions quota imposed by the agreement make it unlikely that any credible agreement could be reached or respected, either because countries would be reluctant to commit, or due to opportunistic cheating.
Thinking ‘Eco-Systemically’ to Shift the Trillions
Post, December 7, 2015By Romain Morel, Ian Cochran
A factor that clearly differentiates COP21 and COP15 in Copenhagen is the increasing mobilization of the financial sector. In the past months, financial actors have taken commitments and spoken out on climate-related topics.
The price of carbon: ways forward after COP-21
Post, November 26, 2015By Christian de Perthuis, Pierre-André Jouvet, Raphaël Trotignon
Because the climate is a common good, economists generally advocate the use of an international carbon price to internalize climate risk, to incorporate as many countries as possible into an agreement and to thwart “free-rider” strategies.
Towards a Sustainable Financial System
Post, November 26, 2015By Armin Haas
It will be key for the global sustainability transition that the measures taken in the respective sustainability dimensions, i.e. the economic, the ecological, and the social dimension, complement and reinforce each other.
Environmental policy performance bonds
Post, November 12, 2015By Abdeldjellil Bouzidi, Michael Mainelli
Linking public debt to CO2 emissions could give governments a strong incentive to deliver on climate change action.
Is the exchange rate – oil price nexus stable over time?
Post, October 26, 2015By Valérie Mignon, Jean-Pierre Allegret, Cécile Couharde, Tovonony Razafindrabe
It is a widely accepted view that many commodity-exporting countries have commodity currencies, in that movements in real commodity prices can explain fluctuations in their real exchange rates.
How Could We Finance Low-Carbon Investments in Europe?
Post, October 22, 2015By Michel Aglietta, Etienne Espagne, Vincent Aussilloux, Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert
This year, Europe is confronted with a critical double challenge: addressing the climate change issue and pulling itself out of a persistent low growth trap. Today these two challenges are addressed separately. We propose to make private low-carbon assets eligible for the ECB asset purchase program.
A €120bn investment programme for the European Union’s three-year Juncker Plan
Post, October 22, 2015By Michel Lepetit
Massive financing of the energy transition in schools, hospitals
and other public buildings.
and other public buildings.
Financing the Green Climate Fund
Post, October 22, 2015By Matthias Kroll
How central banks can contribute to staying below the 2°C benchmark by purchasing Green Climate Bonds.
Climate Finance in the Context of Sustainable Development
Post, October 22, 2015By Ottmar Edenhofer, Jan Christoph Steckel, Michael Jakob
Novel ideas how to spend climate finance in a way that reduces emissions and at the same time promotes recipients’ immediate development objectives are required. In this short commentary, we propose to regard climate finance in the broader context of sustainable development.
Thaïlande : du pari de l’ouverture au défi de la modernisation ?
Post, October 20, 2015By Alix de Saint Vaulry
L’économie thaïlandaise a de nombreux atouts, comme le montrent les Profils Pays du CEPII : sa stratégie de développement repose sur une bonne insertion dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales, et sur le pari d’une forte ouverture à l’international.
After TPP: the EU shouldn’t rush into concluding TTIP
Post, October 15, 2015By Sébastien Jean
Despite the magnitude of the Transpacific Partnership Agreement concluded by the United States, the EU should not heed calls to rush into concluding ongoing Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership talks under the Obama administration at any cost, and focus instead on negotiating a good agreement.
Why Finance Can Save the Planet
Post, October 15, 2015By Jean Pisani-Ferry
Most people hate finance, viewing it as the epitome of irresponsibility and greed. But, even after causing a once-in-a-century recession and unemployment for millions, finance looks indispensable for preventing an even worse catastrophe: climate change.
The “$100 000 000 000 per year” question
Post, October 8, 2015By Christian De Perthuis, Pierre-André Jouvet
A mechanism of carbon “bonus-malus” is proposed, where the average emission rate of world countries serves as the anchor: above the threshold, countries should pay a malus, under this level, they would receive a bonus.
Financial Innovation and The State: Lessons for 21st Century Climate Finance from the 19th Century Railways Era
Post, October 1, 2015By Dipak Dasgupta
This paper seeks to bring a historical perspective to current global financial architecture issues on the speed and scale of climate finance needed to achieve a safer two degrees world. We look back in history to a similar episode for lessons: the financing and building of railroads in the 19th century.
Supporting the energy transition: the role of low interest rates
Post, October 1, 2015By Pierre Monnin
Low interest rates tend to favor ‘green technologies’ competitiveness while also increasing their cost volatility.
The Role of International Financial Institutions, Central Banks and Monetary Policies in the Low-Carbon Transition
Post, October 1, 2015By Colin Hines
An argument in favor of Green infrastructure Quantitative Easing (GIQE).
Sovereign debt restructuring: alternative solutions
Post, September 24, 2015By Christophe Destais
The implementation of a multilateral mechanism for sovereign debt restructuring that the UN is calling for, is illusory. However, progress could be achieved in different ways: improving the contractual terms, introducing new clauses on automatic debt reprofiling and using the leverage of international funding.
An Investment Climate for Climate Investment
Post, September 22, 2015By Sam Fankhauser
Three factors hold back low-carbon investment in Europe: the risk/return profile of low-carbon investment projects, regulatory and behavioural features in the financial sector and a more global political economy context. These are key issues to create an investment climate for climate investment.
What Role for Financial Supervisors in Addressing Systemic Environmental Risk?
Post, September 22, 2015By Rens van Tilburg
Financial shocks can originate from ecological imbalances what justifies more careful attention by the financial regulators to this specific risk. A new macroprudential framework is proposed.
Positive Pricing of Carbon Reduction: A Low Hanging Fruit
Post, September 22, 2015By Alfredo Sirkis
A new UN Climate agreement will probably be signed by the end of this year with some incremental progress but even inveterate optimists like myself don’t believe it will be capable of ‘bridging the gap’ between the maximum that 196 governments can agree upon by consensus...
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The exit from the U.S. zero interest-rate policy should be done gradually
Post, September 18, 2015By Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier
Once again, the Federal Reserve has postponed the date of exit from the zero lower bound. We show that the pace of the tightening cycle matters more than the exact timing of the first interest rate hike for the macroeconomy.
More Political Economy on Global Warming and a Proposition
Post, September 18, 2015By Michel Aglietta, Etienne Espagne
We draw six political economy lessons from the actual dynamics of climate negotiations and their connection to the new macroeconomic normal emerging in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. A specific proposal follows.
Reorienting financial intermediation towards sustainable financing: Bangladesh Bank’s approach
Post, September 18, 2015By M.A.M. Kazemi
The Bangladesh central bank has a long tradition of favouring socially sustainable financing behavior. It was thus natural to extend its mission to the question of climate change mitigation and adaptation investments, both internally and externally in the global financial system.
Guideposts for low-carbon finance
Post, September 18, 2015By Billy Pizer
Four guide-posts for efficient low-carbon finance are proposed: remove subsidies for high-carbon technologies, improve the cost-effectiveness of low-carbon subsidies, encourage private sector innovation, and maintain transparent public policy tools that support cost-benefit accounting.
Four Roadblocks to a Global Climate Agreement
Post, September 18, 2015By Jean Pisani-Ferry
As the pace of action looks set to rumble on, countries should seek to make progress on resolving several key issues including the free-rider problem.
How to Finance the Low Carbon Transition: The Role of the Financial System
Post, September 17, 2015By Etienne Espagne, Baptiste Perrissin Fabert
The aim of this webpage, co-hosted by France Stratégie and CEPII, is to provide a medium for experts and non-experts to discuss the merits and the limits of the various proposals and initiatives in the field of international finance. It is intended to become a forum where the debate on the financial system’s contribution to the energy transition can flourish.
China: what are the motivations of the recent depreciation of the RMB?
Post, September 14, 2015By Christophe Destais
The decision to change the exchange rate regime of the renminbi taken by the Chinese authorities at the beginning of August might be less a response to the economic downturn than a further step, against all odds, in a bold but risky financial liberalization agenda.
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Was the IMF right to come to the rescue of Greece in 2010?
Post, June 30, 2015By Christophe Destais
Back in 2010, the Eurozone countries insisted a lot that the IMF provides exceptional financing to Greece. They will be duly reminded when the reckoning moment has come.
Structural reforms: why did the term become so "toxic"?
Post, May 29, 2015By Sophie Piton
From May 21 to May 23, the ECB organized its 2nd annual forum on Central banking. Mario Draghi's inaugural speech, as well as discussions on May 23rd, focused mainly on the need for structural reforms to strengthen growth in Europe.
What could be Japan contribution to COP 21?
Post, May 28, 2015By Evelyne Dourille-Feer
Europe was disappointed in the GHG emissions reduction proposal by Japan in the context of the COP 21: -25.4% between 2005 and 2030. Japan could nonetheless help move forward the climate issue by its technologies and original experiences.
The Chinese game of Go in the international financial system
Post, May 12, 2015By Christophe Destais
The rallying of major Western countries to the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank provides yet another illustration of the relevance of the analogy between China's diplomacy and the game of Go aimed at placing pawns patiently to stifle one’s opponents and conquer territories.
Volatility and uncertainty are not the same!
Post, May 4, 2015By Valérie Mignon, Marc Joëts, Tovonony Razafindrabe
Crude oil price volatility is often viewed as reflecting uncertainty not only related to the oil market, but also to the global macroeconomic environment. However, the question arises as to whether uncertainty is not likely to be at play without generating high volatility on the oil market.
Back to the Great Moderation?
Post, April 30, 2015By Stéphane Lhuissier
Following the largest financial shock since the Great Depression, modern industrial countries appear to be coming back to a moderate growth trajectory, as was the case for the last three decades.
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Regulatory coherence is more easily said than done
Post, April 23, 2015By Sébastien Jean
Regulatory coherence is claimed to be the core of the potential economic stakes in the TTIP. As the 9th Round of Negotiations is being convened in New York City, time has come for discussions to take a more concrete form.
Europe is trapped by its competitiveness obsession
Post, April 22, 2015By Sébastien Jean
While European external surpluses are accumulating and domestic demand is slacking, insisting on improving the Union’s external competitiveness, as some in the Commission are presently doing, is paradoxical. For Europe, the paramount risk is not losing its competitiveness. It is not recovering cohesion and growth.
QE - "European style": be bolder, but parsimonious!
Post, March 24, 2015By Urszula Szczerbowicz, Natacha Valla
The ECB will purchase a monthly €60bn of private and public debt instruments between March 2015 and September 2016 – a total worth over €1 trillion. While the timing and size of purchases are known, there is more leeway than it seems in the way purchases are allocated to each category of assets.
Quantitative Easing: were markets surprised?
Post, January 24, 2015By Stéphane Lhuissier
The ECB has announced that it will launch in March its first round of quantitative easing. The announcement contains some good and bad surprises: the size of the ECB's plan is gigantic, while the Central Bank was unclear about the Greek issue. How was this announcement perceived by markets?
ECB equity purchases: too risky, really?
Post, January 9, 2015By Urszula Szczerbowicz, Natacha Valla
Instead of buying sovereign debt, the ECB could broaden further its purchases to include equity of all sorts. Fuelling an equity bubble is no worse than fuelling a bond one. It can be mitigated by intervening secretly and including non listed securities. Inhibitions to take risk should be lifted.
Long live the Juncker Plan!
Post, December 21, 2014By Natacha Valla
The long awaited Juncker Plan for investment in Europe has arrived a few weeks ago. Beyond the creation of a Strategic Fund, the Plan as a whole has disappointed: not adamant enough to eliminate the deep obstacles to cross-border investment, and opaque in generating the “List” of projects to be financed. Yet, even imperfectly, Europe has now done its homework.
Is China finally inhaling the smoke of international financial markets?
Post, December 16, 2014By Christophe Destais
The recycling of current account and/or financial account surpluses through the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by emerging countries after the 1999-2001 crisis, particularly by China, has been described as “smoking but not inhaling in international financial markets”.
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TTIP is about regulatory coherence
Post, December 8, 2014By Lionel Fontagné, Sébastien Jean
The TTIP has become a full-blown political issue as the two largest economic entities in the world are negotiating a deep integration agreement, going beyond what has been done previously in any agreement except the EU’s Single Market.
Purchases of sovereign bonds: the ECB confronted with the heterogeneity of the Euro area
Post, December 4, 2014By Urszula Szczerbowicz
The ECB has confirmed its determination to counter the risk of deflation in the eurozone by evoking the possibility of sovereign bond purchases, but is confronted once again with the heterogeneity of the area. The need for compromise could jeopardize the effectiveness of its action.
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The delusion of State guarantees
Post, October 3, 2014By Natacha Valla
European policymakers are currently busy addressing two issues: moribund investment and banks on extended sick leave. Some observers might be tempted to segregate these issues. While investment would be in the remit of States, the financial health of our economies would be under the responsibility of the ECB alone.
