The current narrative portrays modern services – such as financial, digital, and business services – as the new engine of globalization, sustaining global trade openness despite shocks like the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and protectionist policies.
This paper qualifies this view by showing the outsized role of tax havens, which now account for over 25% of global modern services trade (up from 12% in the late 1990s), far exceeding their 4% share of global GDP.
Multinational enterprises’ tax avoidance strategies may inflate recorded trade flows of modern services, particularly in tax havens.
A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that the growth of modern services trade is 25% larger when including trade with tax havens over 2005–2022, and 35% larger over 2005–2019, highlighting their disproportionate impact on globalization metrics.

 Data :   pb2026-52.xlsx

 Mots-clés : Globalization | Trade in services | Tax havens | International Trade

 JEL : F15, F6, H26