CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Carbon Bias of Tariffs: Are Fossil fuels the Culprits?


Cecilia Bellora
Lionel Fontagné
Christophe Gouel
Youssef Salib

 Points clés :
  • The study finds that the magnitude of the "carbon bias" in tariffs –where carbon-intensive goods face lower trade barriers– is significantly smaller than previously estimated, largely because high tariffs in agriculture counterbalance the under-taxation of fossil fuels when accounting for all greenhouse gases.
  • Fossil fuels stand out as the main source of bias because of their consistently low tariffs, yet this effect almost disappears when the model includes natural resource constraints on fossil fuel extraction.
  • In non-fossil-producing countries, significant domestic fuel taxes already act much like tariffs, reversing the apparent bias of undervalued fossil fuels.
  • Given these findings, policy reforms aimed at harmonizing protection across sectors would have modest, if not negative, global climate benefits.

 Résumé :
This paper revisits the existence of a carbon bias in trade policies, where emissions-intensive sectors receive lower trade protection than cleaner sectors. Using a stylized general equilibrium model that accounts for greenhouse gas emissions, we confirm the presence of a carbon bias but find it to be significantly smaller than previously estimated. Our analysis reveals that this bias is primarily driven by low tariffs on fossil fuels, particularly crude oil. Incorporating the finite nature of fossil fuel resources into the model reduces the responsiveness of fossil fuel production to tariff changes, effectively neutralizing the carbon bias. Furthermore, when accounting for domestic consumption taxes on fossil fuels in non-producing countries –which act as de facto tariffs– the bias shifts toward a pro-environmental stance. These findings underscore the importance of integrating energy markets' specificities and domestic distortions into trade models to better account for the impact of trade policies on the environment.


 Mots-clés : Fossil Fuels | Greenhouse Gases | International Trade | Tariffs

 JEL : F13, F18, Q40, Q56
CEPII Working Paper
N°2025-08, May 2025

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