CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
What if? Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of the Energy Crisis with Peak-load Electricity


Balthazar de Vaulchier
Lionel Fontagné
Yu Zheng

 Points clés :
  • We introduce a base--peak load structure to electricity modeling in large-scale CGE models to better capture merit order dispatch, capacity constraints and renewable intermittency.
  • A transparent toy model demonstrates how ignoring peak load constraints systematically underestimates the macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks.
  • We argue that second-order approximation are not well-suited for this kind of exercise, due to the large size of the shock compared to the value of the elasticity of substitution.
  • We treat base load and peak load electricity as non-substitutable Leontief complements, reflecting operational constraints in electricity systems.
  • Applying the refined model to the 2022 Russian gas shock reveals larger GDP and welfare losses in Germany and the EU than standard electricity representations predict.Applying the refined model to the 2022 Russian gas shock reveals larger GDP and welfare losses in Germany and the EU than standard electricity representations predict.

 Résumé :
Electricity generation presents distinctive modeling challenges due to the absence of storage, instantaneous demandsupply balancing requirements, and heterogeneous generation technologies with different cost structures. This paper addresses these challenges by incorporating a base--peak load structure into large-scale computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, offering a middle ground between detailed energy system models and multisectoral global economic frameworks. We first develop a transparent toy model inspired by \textcite{bachmann2022} to demonstrate that first-order approximations of cascading effects, following Hulten's theorem, are inadequate when shocks are large and elasticities of substitution are low. Building on the theoretical insights, we embed a base--peak structure into the MIRAGE CGE model, treating electricity as a Leontief production function between base load generation (coal, nuclear, hydro, and part of renewables) and peak load generation (gas, oil, and peak renewables). This refinement captures the merit order dispatch mechanism and bottleneck effects when peak generation is constrained. We apply the enhanced model to assess the 2022 Russian gas shock in Germany and the European Union. Our results demonstrate that the base--peak structure more accurately reproduces observed macroeconomic impacts compared to standard electricity representations, with significantly larger GDP and welfare losses particularly affecting energyintensive industrial sectors, and less possible substitution from variable renewable energies. Theoretically, we show that third-order effects become important under conditions we explicitly identify, complementing recent findings on shock amplification in production networks. For policy, our findings highlight two key levers for responding to energy shocks: supply flexibility through storage and grid interconnection, and demand smoothing through dynamic pricing and interruptible contracts. The paper contributes methodologically by demonstrating how simplified yet realistic electricity representations can be integrated into global CGE frameworks without sacrificing the broader economic feedback mechanisms essential for policy analysis.


 Mots-clés : Electricity Modeling | Base Load and Peak Load | Computable General Equilibrium | Energy Shocks | Russian Gas Crisis | MIRAGE Model

 JEL : C68, D58, Q41, Q43
CEPII Working Paper
N°2026-03, March 2026

Texte intégral

Référence
BibTeX (with abstract),
plain text (with abstract),
RIS (with abstract)

Contact: 
Retour