CEPII - Accueil

USA-EU trade dashboard

While the United States are intensifying tariff measures, find the main data on trade between the European Union and the United States on our new dashboard: bilateral trade balance, composition of trade in goods and services, trade exposures by sector, trade protection, dependencies, as well as our main publications on the topic. Continue reading >>

May 12, 2026

United States: The Security Paradox of Trade Decoupling from China
Thierry Mayer, Isabelle Méjean, Mathias Thoening
The growing dependence of the United States on Chinese goods has increased the economic cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the U.S. economy. The United States therefore faces a fundamental security dilemma: while decoupling may strengthen its diplomatic bargaining power, it may also fuel a costly escalation of tensions.

April 9, 2026

Military Alliances: A Major Commercial Stake
Matteo Neri-Lainé
Beyond national security issues, military alliances play an essential role in securing international trade. Their redefinition could lead to a major reorientation of global flows.

March 23, 2026

Characterizing Geopolitical Relationships to Better Understand Trade
Nathan Chevalier, Matthieu Crozet, Charlotte Emlinger, Daniel Mirza
The markedly negative tone of relations with Russia has eased for the American and Chinese superpowers, according to the geopolitical climate indicator “Shade."

March 9, 2026

Economic Integration of Non-European Immigrants: Difficulties That Ease Over Time
Anthony Edo, Jérôme Valette
Within the ten main host countries of the European Union (EU), non-European immigrants (born outside the EU) face notable difficulties in economic integration. With comparable socio-economic characteristics, their employment rate is on average 11 percentage points lower than that of native-born individuals.

Trade & Globalization

Competitiveness & Growth

Emerging Countries

Environment & Natural Resources

LE Graphique – THE Chart

United States: The Security Paradox of Trade Decoupling from China

Sovereign Gravity: The Military Alliance Effect on Trade

International insecurity can severely disrupt trade. This Working Paper studies treaties aimed at preventing such insecurity: military alliances. The author develops a quantitative model of trade with endogenous international insecurity, where alliances affect trade flows by reducing the risk of violent expropriation faced by firms. Taking a structural gravity approach, he shows that alliances increase trade by 66% on average. The effects of military alliances are dynamic and heterogeneous. They depend to a large extent on the type of alliance and the economic size of partners. An instrumental variable strategy and an event study confirm the causal interpretation of the results. Investigating the mechanism behind the impacts of military alliances, the paper demonstrates that alliances increase trade by reducing international insecurity. Moreover, employing the full scope of our theoretical model, a general equilibrium analysis shows that the growth in trade generated by military alliances brings substantial welfare gains for signatories and losses for non-aligned countries. Continue reading >>

Analysis and debates

Cryptocurrency Mercantilism and Monetary Sovereignty: the Challenge of US Stablecoins for Europe

The US government is actively promoting cryptocurrencies, especially stablecoins, which are digital assets backed by a reference currency. This strategy goes beyond the national financial framework; it aims to consolidate the global dominance of the dollar and reshape the international monetary order. By favoring dollar-backed stablecoins, the United States hopes to strengthen the influence of its tech giants in payments, and boost demand for dollar-denominated assets, particularly its public debt. The Genius Act provides the legal basis for this approach, in contrast to the European Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR), which favors consumer protection over the financial risks of stablecoins. The US policy could weaken the efforts of the European Central Bank (ECB) to increase the international role of the euro, and threatens the monetary sovereignty of many countries. To avoid this, the EU would benefit, along with its partners, from defending a multilateral payment system based on cooperation. Continue reading >>

Publications

L’Union européenne sous pression : les droits de douane américains redirigent-ils les exportations chinoises vers l’Europe ?

L’émergence de l’extrême droite façonne-t-elle le positionnement des partis traditionnels sur la question migratoire ?

Les instruments de l’évitement fiscal des multinationales

Sovereign Gravity: The Military Alliance Effect on Trade

Air Service Agreements, Connectivity and Emissions

What if? Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of the Energy Crisis with Peak-load Electricity

What Strategy Should the European Union Adopt in the Face of US Protectionism?

Working Around Sanctions. What Cost to Russia?

Trump 2.0 Tariffs: What Cost for the World Economy?

Health Products in International Trade: a Full-Fledged Industry Grouping

CEPII Region Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications

CEPII Country Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications

See all

Coming Events

Séminaire compétitivité CEPII-Banque de France : La baisse des impôts de production : ciblage et évaluation
June 24, 2026

Presentation of the CEPII's annual publication "The World Economy 2027"
September 9, 2026

See all

Past Events

IMF's World Economic Outlook 2026:
The Economic Consequences of a Conflict-Prone World
May 5, 2026

Séminaire de recherche du CEPII : "Paying Not to Know: News Avoidance in Times of War"
April 20, 2026

Réfugiés : des immigrés comme les autres ?
April 15, 2026

Le CEPII, partenaire de la Cité de l'économie. Table ronde "Nouvel ordre mondial : où va la géopolitique économique ?"
April 10, 2026

Séminaire de recherche du CEPII : "Domestic Tax Reform, New Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing"
March 26, 2026

The investment and broader macroeconomic impacts of the EU’s energy transition. Discussion with Romain Duval (IMF)
March 25, 2026

See all