CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
MaGE


Description


MaGE is a macroeconometric model of the world economy made for projecting the global shifts of current century.

Based on a three-factor production function of labour, capital and energy, plus two forms of technological change, we propose long-run growth scenarios for 167 countries at the 2050 horizon, among which the main scenario is available as the EconMap database.

Our model is fitted with United Nations and International Labour Office labour projections, and econometric estimations of (i) capital accumulation, (ii) saving rates, (iii) relationship between saving rates and investment rates, (iv) education, (v) female participation, and (vi) technological progress (which includes energy and total factor productivity).


Reference document to cite:  > Fouré, J., Bénassy-Quéré, A., & Fontagné, L. (2012),
The Great Shift: Macroeconomic Projections for the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon CEPII Working paper 2012-03.


 > Fouré, J., Bénassy-Quéré, A., & Fontagné, L. (2013), Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon, Economics of Transition 21 (4), p.p. 617-654.

Person in charge & contact: Erica Perego et Gianluca Santoni, magecepii.fr

Licence: 
MaGE model is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution - Non Commercial 3.0 Unported License.
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Release Data Files Documentation
2.4 Source code MaGE_2.4_r149.rar Read me ;
Documentation of SSP scenarios
2.3 Source code MaGE_2.3_r115.rar Read me ;
Updated methodology on
energy productivity
2.2 Source code MaGE_2.2_r76.rar Read me
2.1 Source code MaGE_2.1_r60.rar Read me


Methodology
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Our study provides four novelties.

First, we account for energy constraints by including its consumption in the production function and by taking account of rents accruing to oil exporting countries.

Second, we estimate a non-unitary relationship between savings and investment, departing from assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility.

Third, we model female participation rates consistently with education catch-up.

Finally, we disentangle real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates from relative price effects through a consistent Balassa-Samuelson effect.
Archives
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Release Date Description
2.4 January 2016 Introducing SSP scenarios. Updated energy price projections. Introducing smoothing of non-annual projections.
2.3 October 2014 20 new countries available. Updated source data. Revised methodology on energy productivity. Several bug corrections.
2.2 September 2013 Updated parametrization (in line with published article) and new scenario capabilities (price of investment, skills of migrants).
2.1 September 2012 First public release of MaGE source code